LSTM Light Epidemiology-Game theory simulation

globals [
  ;; Antibiotic tracking

  
  ;; Population size (constant)
  ;; total-population
  ;;global-population-size
  ;;global-actives
]

breed [diseases disease]

diseases-own [
  disease-name
  
  ;; Core parameters
  infectivity
  latency-period
  activation-rate
  healing-rate
  mortality-rate
  
  ;; Immunity parameters
  immunity-strength
  immunity-duration
  
  
  seasonality-amplitude  ;; How much seasonal variation (0-1)
  seasonality-period     ;; Days per cycle (365 for annual)
  
  ;; Population compartments
  current-susceptible
  current-latent
  current-transitioning
  current-active
  current-recovered
  cumulative-deaths
  total-population
  trans-prop
  lat-prop
]

to setup
  clear-all
  
  ;; Initialize globals
  ;;set global-actives 
  ;; Create disease agents
  create-diseases 1 [
    set disease-name "COVID"
    set infectivity 0.05
    set latency-period 10
    set activation-rate 0.5
    set healing-rate 0.01
    set mortality-rate 0.00001
    set immunity-strength 0.95
    set immunity-duration 800
    set trans-prop 0
    
    
    set seasonality-amplitude 0   ;; 70% variation
    set seasonality-period 365      ;; Annual cycle
  
    
    ;; Initial compartments
    set total-population Population-Size
    set current-susceptible total-population - 100
    set current-latent 100
    set current-transitioning 0
    set current-active  Active-cases-at-onset
    set current-recovered 0
    set cumulative-deaths 0
    set trans-prop 0
    
    hide-turtle
  ]
  
  create-diseases 1 [
    set disease-name "TB"
    set infectivity 0.9
    set latency-period 10000
    set activation-rate 0.05
    set healing-rate 0.9
    set mortality-rate 0.005
    set immunity-strength 0.35
    set immunity-duration 365
    set trans-prop 0
    
    set seasonality-amplitude 0   ;; 70% variation
    set seasonality-period 365      ;; Annual cycle
    
    
    set total-population Population-Size
    set current-susceptible total-population - 30000
    set current-latent 20000
    set current-transitioning 5000
    set current-active  Active-cases-at-onset
    set current-recovered 0
    set cumulative-deaths 0
    
    hide-turtle
  ]
  
  create-diseases 1 [
    set disease-name "Influenza"
    set infectivity 0.2
    set latency-period 5
    set activation-rate 0.8
    set healing-rate 0.1
    set mortality-rate 0.0000005
    set immunity-strength 0.05
    set immunity-duration 360
    
    
    set total-population Population-Size
    set current-susceptible total-population - 100
    set current-latent 50
    set current-transitioning 0
    set current-active  Active-cases-at-onset
    set current-recovered 0
    set cumulative-deaths 0
    
    
    set seasonality-amplitude 0.7   ;; 70% variation
    set seasonality-period 365      ;; Annual cycle
    
    hide-turtle
  ]
  

  
  reset-ticks
end 

to go
  if ticks >= 1825 [ stop ]
  if not any? diseases [ stop ]
  
  ask diseases [
    disease-progression
  ]
  
  tick
end 

to disease-progression
  ;; Activation: latent -> active
  
  
  

  
  
  
  let to-transition current-latent / latency-period
  set current-transitioning to-transition + current-transitioning
  set current-latent current-latent - to-transition
  set trans-prop current-transitioning / total-population
  
  
  
  let activating current-transitioning * activation-rate
  set current-transitioning current-transitioning - activating
  set current-active current-active + activating
  
  ;; Self-healing: active -> recovered
  let healing current-active * healing-rate
  set current-active current-active - healing
  set current-recovered current-recovered + healing
  
  
  ;; Immunity waning: recovered -> susceptible
  let waning-rate 1 / immunity-duration
  let losing-immunity current-recovered * waning-rate
  set current-recovered current-recovered - losing-immunity
  set current-susceptible current-susceptible + losing-immunity
  
  
  ;; Mortality: active -> dead
  let dying current-active * mortality-rate
  set current-active current-active - dying
  set cumulative-deaths cumulative-deaths + dying
  
  
  

  
  ;; Transmission: susceptible -> latent (based on active cases)
  
  
  
  let seasonal-multiplier 1 + seasonality-amplitude * sin (ticks * 360 / seasonality-period)
  let force-of-infection infectivity * seasonal-multiplier * (current-active / total-population)
  
  
  
  
  ;;let force-of-infection infectivity * (current-active / total-population)
  let new-infections current-susceptible * force-of-infection
  set current-susceptible current-susceptible - new-infections
  set current-latent current-latent + new-infections
  
  
  ;;population growth
  set total-population current-susceptible + current-latent + current-active + current-transitioning
  let new-babies total-population * 0.00003
  set current-susceptible new-babies + current-susceptible
  
  
  ;; Ensure no negative values
  if current-susceptible < 0 [ set current-susceptible 0 ]
  if current-latent < 0 [ set current-latent 0 ]
  if current-active < 0 [ set current-active 0 ]
  if current-recovered < 0 [ set current-recovered 0 ]
end