model
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; import native netlogo library to use tables and array extensions [table array] ; define global variables globals [ ; Global fix variables (hypothesis of simulation) COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE ; companies max leverage set at 0,9 for non sharia compliant companies and 0,33 for sharia compliant companies MIN-DEBT-RATIO ; companies min debt ratio set at 0 for sharia compliant companies and 0,6 for non sharia compliant for optimization purposes AUCTION-RISE-PERCENT; ; pourcentage of price rise for each round in the auction process ; Global variables for companies avg-companies-ebit avg-companies-equity std-dev-companies-equity avg-companies-leverage tot-companies-bankrupt avg-companies-multiple-offer ; average multiple offer while companies are bought by funds min-companies-debt avg-companies-debt tot-companies-debt tot-companies-PE ; total of private equity backed companies tot-companies-monetized-badwill tot-companies-monetized-goodwill ; monetized badwill and goodwill while companies are bought by funds ; Global variables for funds avg-funds-wealth avg-fund-commitment number-of-funds-drivers ; a fund is considered driver if other funds imitate his investments ; Global variables for market data tot-IPO-transactions tot-transactions nb-transactions-per-tick ; informations of transactions multiple-market next-multiple-market cumulative-multiple-market next-cumulative-multiple-market ; information of multiple market created-market-wealth ; created wealth for the global market ; Global counter variables company-counter fund-counter ; Global bank variables bank-available-debt bank-loses ] ; companies and funds are both breeds of turtle. breed [companies company] breed [funds fund] companies-own [id-company ebit ebit-growth cash ebit-growth-n-1 enterprise-value debt debt-rate status debt-reimbursment age-on-status initial-investment multiple-offer fund-owner-id ownership-percent] ;status 0,1,2,3 -> normal, PEbacked, bankrupt,forsale ; multiple-offer is the last multiple offer used funds-own[id-fund age available-commitment investments wealth max-investment-on-company min-investment-on-company isDriver] ; setup functions to setup clear-all setup-globals-variables setup-companies setup-funds calculate-avg-tot reset-ticks end to setup-company [id-c] ask companies with [id-company = id-c] [ set shape "flag" set color white set size .8 setxy random-xcor (random-ycor / 3 - 2 * max-pycor / 3) set company-counter company-counter + 1 set status 0 set age-on-status 0 set ebit 100 set ebit-growth 0 set debt 0 set enterprise-value 800 set debt-rate 0.05 set debt-reimbursment 0 set cash enterprise-value * 2 / 3 ; each company has initial value of 800 set initial-investment 0 set ownership-percent 0.66 set multiple-offer 0 set fund-owner-id 0 ] end to setup-companies create-companies NUMBER-OF-COMPANIES; initial-number-companies ; create the companies, then initialize their variables [ set id-company company-counter setup-company id-company ] end to setup-funds create-funds NUMBER-OF-FUNDS; initial-number-companies ; create the companies, then initialize their variables [ set id-fund fund-counter set shape "house" set color gray set size 1.2 setxy (min-pxcor + (fund-counter - .5) * (max-pxcor - min-pxcor) / NUMBER-OF-FUNDS) (max-pycor - 1) if (fund-counter mod 2 = 0) [set ycor ycor - 1] set fund-counter fund-counter + 1 ] ask funds [ set isDriver 0 set available-commitment 20000 set age 0 set max-investment-on-company MAX-INVESTMENT-ON-COMPANY-PER-FUND * available-commitment set min-investment-on-company MIN-INVESTMENT-ON-COMPANY-PER-FUND * available-commitment set investments [] set wealth available-commitment ] ask n-of NUMBER-OF-FUNDS-DRIVERS funds [ set isDriver 1 set color yellow ] end to setup-globals-variables set multiple-market 8 ; is set at 8 as initial value set next-multiple-market 0 set next-multiple-market 0 set created-market-wealth 0 set cumulative-multiple-market multiple-market set company-counter 1 set fund-counter 1 set nb-transactions-per-tick 0 set tot-transactions 0 set tot-companies-bankrupt 0 set bank-available-debt TOTAL-DEBT ; bank available debt is set to total debt as initial value ; initial fix values set AUCTION-RISE-PERCENT 0.1 set MIN-DEBT-RATIO 0.6 set COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE 0.9 if isShariaCompliant? [ set MIN-DEBT-RATIO 0 set COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE 0.33] ;Min 1 et x% of number of funds set number-of-funds-drivers int (PERCENTAGE-OF-DRIVERS / 100 * NUMBER-OF-FUNDS) if number-of-funds-drivers = 0 [set number-of-funds-drivers 1] end ; run functions to initialize-tick set next-multiple-market 0 set nb-transactions-per-tick 0 end ; calculate funds wealth to calculate-funds-wealth ; fund wealth = available commitement (cash available) + value of each owned company (equity value of the company * owned percent) ask funds [ ;calculate fund wealth set wealth available-commitment foreach investments [ id-c -> let m-status item 0 [status] of companies with [id-company = id-c ] if m-status != 2 [ let m-value item 0 [enterprise-value] of companies with [id-company = id-c ] let m-debt item 0 [debt] of companies with [id-company = id-c ] let m-ownership-percent item 0 [ownership-percent] of companies with [id-company = id-c ] set wealth wealth + (m-value - m-debt ) * m-ownership-percent ] ] set max-investment-on-company MAX-INVESTMENT-ON-COMPANY-PER-FUND * wealth set min-investment-on-company MIN-INVESTMENT-ON-COMPANY-PER-FUND * wealth ] end ; calculate multiple market to calculate-multiple-market if nb-transactions-per-tick > 0 [set multiple-market next-multiple-market / nb-transactions-per-tick ] if tot-transactions > 0 [ set cumulative-multiple-market next-cumulative-multiple-market / tot-transactions ] end ; calculate companies performance to calculate-companies-performance ask companies with [status != 2] [ ;calculate ebit set ebit-growth-n-1 ebit-growth ; different growth for private equity backet company ifelse (status = 1 or status = 3) ; Private equity backed company [ set ebit-growth 0.04 + 0.2 * ebit-growth + (random-normal 0 Vol-PE) ] ;AR(1) process for ebit growth modelling ;else [ set ebit-growth 0.01 + 0.2 * ebit-growth + (random-normal 0 Vol-Non-PE) ] ;AR(1) process for ebit growth modelling set ebit (1 + ebit-growth ) * ebit ; one year pace ifelse ebit-growth > 0 [set color green][set color red] ;calculate net income and entreprise value let RN (ebit - debt-rate * debt ) if RN > 0 [ set RN RN * 0.7 ]; 0.7 = 1 - tax (30%)] ; calculate debt reimbursment let reimbursment debt-reimbursment if debt - debt-reimbursment <= 0 [ set reimbursment debt] if debt = 0 [ set reimbursment 0] set debt debt - reimbursment set bank-available-debt bank-available-debt + reimbursment set cash cash + RN - reimbursment ; update created wealth and enterprise value set created-market-wealth created-market-wealth + RN set enterprise-value enterprise-value + RN - reimbursment ; value entreprise = Equity + Debt ] end ; set aging funds and companies to set-aging-companies-funds ; update age of funds ask funds [set age age + 1] ; update forsale status ask companies [ set age-on-status age-on-status + 1 ; after one year if company is not saled, the multiple offer is discounted if status = 3 [ set multiple-offer ( 1 - ANNUAL-DISCOUNT-ON-UNSOLD-COMPANIES) * multiple-offer ] ; put forsale investments to IPO if Eq > 5 * initial investment if status = 3 [ let amount-eq (enterprise-value - debt) * ownership-percent if ( amount-eq > 5 * initial-investment ) [ ; sale on IPO if debug-mode? [show (list "IPO" id-company initial-investment amount-eq )] set tot-IPO-transactions tot-IPO-transactions + 1 let f-owner fund-owner-id let id-c id-company ask funds with [id-fund = f-owner ] [ set investments remove id-c investments set available-commitment available-commitment + amount-eq ] set bank-available-debt bank-available-debt + debt setup-company id-c set multiple-offer multiple-market ] ] ; put to sale old investments if status = 1 [ if ((ebit * multiple-market - debt) * ownership-percent > 3 * initial-investment or age-on-status > 5 ) [ set status 3 set age-on-status 0 set multiple-offer ((( 3 * initial-investment ) / ownership-percent )+ debt) / ebit ] ] ] end ; auction processus to launch-auction clear-links ;initilize auction tables let dict-auct-drivers table:make let dict-auct table:make ask companies [ table:put dict-auct id-company [] table:put dict-auct-drivers id-company [] ] ask funds with [available-commitment >= min-investment-on-company ]; [ let fund-id id-fund let dict-score table:make let nb-companies-to-look calculate-nb-companies-to-look fund-id ; for each fund choose "random" companies to look that are availables and score them ask n-of nb-companies-to-look companies with [status != 2 and status != 1 and (isInFund id-company fund-id) = 0 ] [ let m-score scoring-function ebit ebit-growth ebit-growth-n-1 length table:get dict-auct-drivers id-company table:put dict-score id-company m-score ] ; sort scored companies let scores-sorted (sort-by [ [id1 id2] -> table:get dict-score id1 > table:get dict-score id2 ] table:keys dict-score ) let m-commitment available-commitment ; based on scores determine wich company is interesting for investment foreach scores-sorted [ id-c -> if ( table:get dict-score id-c > MIN-SCORE-TO-INVEST ) [ let m-amout-eq calculate-amount-eq id-c if min (list available-commitment max-investment-on-company) > ( 1 - COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE) * m-amout-eq [ ask companies with [id-company = id-c ] [ create-link-from myself ] if isDriver = 1 [ let m-list lput id-fund table:get dict-auct-drivers id-c table:put dict-auct-drivers id-c m-list ] let m-list lput id-fund table:get dict-auct id-c table:put dict-auct id-c m-list ] ] ] ] ; auction process foreach table:keys dict-auct [ id-c -> let m-list-funds table:get dict-auct id-c let nb-funds length m-list-funds if ( nb-funds != 0 ) [ let m-amout-eq calculate-amount-eq id-c if ( nb-funds = 1 ) ; if only one fund os interested by a company , fund buy it [ Observer-buy-company id-c ( item 0 m-list-funds ) m-amout-eq ] ; else another round launched where price is rised if (nb-funds > 1 ) [ negociation-to-buy m-list-funds INCREMENT-PROBABILITY-TO-QUIT m-amout-eq id-c] ] ] end ; main to go clear-links ; delete all the links initialize-tick ; aging process calculate-companies-performance set-aging-companies-funds check-bankrupty ; auction process launch-auction ; update variables calculate-funds-wealth calculate-multiple-market calculate-avg-tot ; display display-labels if debug-mode? [ ask funds [show (list id-fund age available-commitment investments wealth max-investment-on-company isDriver)] ask companies [ show (list id-company ebit enterprise-value debt status initial-investment multiple-offer fund-owner-id )] ] ;export-data tick end ; update average global variables to calculate-avg-tot set avg-companies-equity mean [enterprise-value] of companies with [status != 2] set avg-companies-equity avg-companies-equity - (mean [debt] of companies with [status != 2]) set std-dev-companies-equity standard-deviation [enterprise-value - debt] of companies with [status != 2] set tot-companies-debt sum [debt] of companies with [status != 2] set avg-funds-wealth mean [wealth] of funds set avg-companies-ebit mean [ebit] of companies with [status != 2] set tot-companies-PE count companies with [ status = 1 or status = 3] set avg-companies-debt mean [debt] of companies with [status != 2] set avg-companies-multiple-offer mean [multiple-offer] of companies with [status != 2] set avg-fund-commitment mean [available-commitment] of funds ;calculation of average levrage ifelse count companies with [status = 1 or status = 3] > 0 [ set avg-companies-leverage mean[debt / enterprise-value] of companies with [status = 1 or status = 3] set min-companies-debt min [debt ] of companies with [status = 1 or status = 3] ] [set avg-companies-leverage 0] end ; private functions for auction process to-report isInFund [id-c id-f] ; check if company of id id-c is owned by the fund of id id-f let m-investments item 0 [investments] of funds with [id-fund = id-f ] foreach m-investments [ id -> if id = id-c [report 1] ] report 0 end to-report calculate-amount-eq [id-c] ; calculate equity amount that a fund is able to pay for the company ; equity amount = ebit * multiple -debt ; multiple = to multiple offer if teh company is forsale ( it is different from market multiple) let result 0 ask companies with [id-company = id-c] [ let m-multiple multiple-market if status = 3 [ set m-multiple multiple-offer ; ] set result (ebit * m-multiple - debt) if debug-mode? [ show (list id-c result multiple-market multiple-offer m-multiple )] ] report result end to negociation-to-buy [list-funds probability-to-quit amount id-c ] ; remove form list of funds intrested by the company, companies that are not able because amount is too high that their financial capacity foreach list-funds [ id-fd -> let rand random 100 if rand / 100 < probability-to-quit ; funds can quit for different reasons with a probability to quit that is incremented each round [ set list-funds remove id-fd list-funds ] let m-max-investment-on-company item 0 [max-investment-on-company] of funds with [id-fund = id-fd] let m-commitment item 0 [available-commitment]of funds with [id-fund = id-fd] if min (list m-commitment m-max-investment-on-company) < ( 1 - COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE) * amount [ set list-funds remove id-fd list-funds ] ] ifelse length list-funds = 0 [ if debug-mode? [show "quit"] stop ] [ ifelse length list-funds = 1 [ Observer-buy-company id-c item 0 list-funds amount ] ; recursive function, we rise price another time [ ; if more than a fund is intrested , another round of negociation until only one fund or no fund is intrested , price is rised next round negociation-to-buy list-funds probability-to-quit + INCREMENT-PROBABILITY-TO-QUIT amount * ( 1 + AUCTION-RISE-PERCENT) id-c ] ] end to-report calculate-nb-companies-to-look [ fund-id] ; calculate number of companies are available forsale or not yet owned , this number is capped ; funds can only look at a limied number of companies du to the associated cost let nb-companies-to-look count companies with [status != 2 and status != 1 and (isInFund id-company fund-id) = 0 ] if nb-companies-to-look > NUMBER-OF-COMPANIES-TO-LOOK [set nb-companies-to-look NUMBER-OF-COMPANIES-TO-LOOK] report nb-companies-to-look end to Observer-buy-company [id-c id-f amount] ; function to update variables when a fund id-f buy the company with id id-c at an amount "amount" let fund-is-able-to-buy-company 1 let m-ownership-percent item 0 [ownership-percent] of companies with [id-company = id-c] let m-debt item 0 [debt] of companies with [id-company = id-c] let new-debt max (list ( MIN-DEBT-RATIO * amount ) ( ( amount + m-debt ) * COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE - m-debt )) ; what does this mean? let amount-eq-fund ( amount - new-debt ) * m-ownership-percent ask funds with [id-fund = id-f] [ ; check if fund is able to buy the company at the amount let possible-amount-eq min (list available-commitment max-investment-on-company) if amount-eq-fund > possible-amount-eq [ if possible-amount-eq < ( 1 - COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE) * amount * m-ownership-percent [ set fund-is-able-to-buy-company 0 ] set amount-eq-fund possible-amount-eq set new-debt amount - amount-eq-fund / m-ownership-percent ] if amount-eq-fund < min-investment-on-company [ set amount-eq-fund min-investment-on-company set new-debt amount - amount-eq-fund / m-ownership-percent ] if new-debt < 0 or new-debt / amount < min-debt-ratio [ set fund-is-able-to-buy-company 0 ] ; if yes, upadte fund , companies and market variables if fund-is-able-to-buy-company = 1 [ ; update company data ask companies with [id-company = id-c] [ let multiple ( amount + debt)/ ebit let new_enterprise-Value amount + debt let leverage ( debt + new-debt ) / (new_enterprise-Value ) if ( ( multiple - multiple-offer ) > -0.01 and bank-available-debt > new-debt and leverage < COMPANIES-MAX-LEVERAGE) [ ; update market data set bank-available-debt bank-available-debt - new-debt set nb-transactions-per-tick nb-transactions-per-tick + 1 set tot-transactions tot-transactions + 1 set next-multiple-market next-multiple-market + multiple set next-cumulative-multiple-market next-cumulative-multiple-market + multiple if item 0 [status] of companies with [id-company = id-c] = 3 [ ; update investement of fund ask funds with [id-fund = item 0 ([fund-owner-id] of companies with [id-company = id-c] ) ] [ set available-commitment available-commitment + amount-eq-fund set investments remove id-c investments ] ] let diff-eq new_enterprise-Value - enterprise-value ifelse diff-eq > 0 [set tot-companies-monetized-goodwill tot-companies-monetized-goodwill + diff-eq] [set tot-companies-monetized-badwill tot-companies-monetized-badwill + diff-eq] set debt debt + new-debt set enterprise-value new_enterprise-Value set debt-reimbursment debt / 5 set status 1 set fund-owner-id id-f set age-on-status 0 set initial-investment amount-eq-fund ; upodate fund data ask funds with [id-fund = id-f] [ set available-commitment available-commitment - amount-eq-fund set investments lput id-c investments ] ] ] ] ] ; update display data ( link between funds and companies owned ) display-fund-own-company end to display-fund-own-company ; this function create link between funds and its owned companies for display purposes let nb-investments 0 let xfund 0 let yfund 0 ; display function ask funds [ ;coordinates of fund set xfund xcor set yfund ycor set nb-investments length investments let counter 1 foreach investments [ id -> ask companies with [id-company = id] [ set counter counter + 1 ; positionner société sous le fonds setxy xfund yfund - counter ] ] ] end to display-labels ask companies [ set label "" ] if show-status? [ ask companies [ set label status ] ask funds [set label int (wealth / 5000) ] ] end to-report scoring-function [ i-ebit perf-n perf-n-1 number-driver-in-auction] ; scoring function as explained in the article if i-ebit < 0 [ report 0 ] let perf-i ( ( i-ebit / 100 )^( 1 / (ticks + 1) ) - 1 ) if debug-mode? [ show (list "Perf" perf-i perf-n perf-n-1 ticks i-ebit) ] report (( 1 - IMITATION-RATIO ) * score-perf perf-i perf-n perf-n-1 + IMITATION-RATIO * min (list 1 ( 4 * ( number-driver-in-auction / number-of-funds-drivers )))) end to-report score-perf [perf-i perf1 perf2] ifelse perf1 < 0.05 or perf2 < 0.05 or perf-i < 0 [ report 0 ] [ report (( min(list perf1 0.1) + min (list perf2 0.1))/ 2 ) * 10 ] end ; private aging functions to check-bankrupty ; check if a company is bankrupt ask companies with [status != 2] [ if ( enterprise-value - debt < 1 or ebit * multiple-market < 1 or cash < 0 ) [ if debug-mode? [show ( list "bankrupt " id-company enterprise-value debt ebit ) ] set bank-loses bank-loses + debt set tot-companies-bankrupt tot-companies-bankrupt + 1 let f-owner fund-owner-id let id-c id-company ask funds with [id-fund = f-owner ] [ set investments remove id-c investments ] setup-company id-company ] ] end ;;;; ;to export-data ; export data for debug and check ;if export-data? ; [ ; file-open "output-netlogo.csv" ; file-print tot-companies-bankrupt ; file-print avg-leverage ;file-print avg-companies-equity ; file-print cumulative-multiple-market ;if ticks = 0 [file-print "standard deviation of equity"] ;file-print std-dev-equity ; if ticks = 39 [ ; file-print "Company Equity" ; ask companies [file-print enterprise-value - debt] ; ] ;file-close ; ] ;end
There is only one version of this model, created 9 months ago by ifelab lerma.
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