Simple smittespredningsmodel

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Solveig Skadhauge (Author)

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## Hvad er dette?

Denne model er en forsimplet udgave af “virus” copyright Uri Wilensky, 1998 Modellen er lavet i forbindelse med DASG projektet “computational thinking”, 2018-2019 af Eva Danielsen, Nærum Gymnasium

Pakken indeholder foreløbig tre programmer: Dillen_breder_sig_2d, Rektors_problem_2d og rektors_problem_gåhjem_2d.

## Historien

I denne model optræder elever og lærere på et gymnasium. Hver person kan enten være "rask", "inficeret", eller immun. I starten af modellen er alle raske, undtagen én, som er inficeret. Hvor smitsom sygdommen er kan reguleres, men afhænger i virkeligheden af sygdommens natur, elevernes hygiejne, og generel adfærd.

I rektors_problem_gåhjem_2d kan eleverne desuden sættes til at gå hjem. Dette gøres ved at de går mod centrum ved at gange deres koordinatsæt med et tal 0

Modellen får eleverne til at smitte mindre, dels ved at de flytter i karentæne, men også på vejen ind spreder de sig mindre, da de smittede følges ad, og derfor ikke dækker så stort et område.

## Den matematiske model.

Modellen er simulerer epidemimodellen, SIR, hvor der optræder modtagelige (suscetible) og inficerede (infected) og recovered.

SIR-modellen er et godt eksempel på koblede differentialligninger der ikke kan løses analytisk, men kan løses numerisk med Eulers metode eller andre numeriske metoder.

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turtles-own
[ sick?                 ;; if true, the turtle is infectious
  immune?               ;; if true, the turtle is immune
  sick-time   ]          ;; how long, in days the turtle has been infectious

globals
  [ %infected            ;; what % of the population is infectious
    %immune ]             ;; what % of the population is immune

;; The setup is run when clicking "setup" in the interface

to setup
  clear-all
  setup-turtles
  update-global-variables
  update-display
  reset-ticks
end 

;; We create a variable number of turtles of which 1 is infectious, and distribute them randomly

to setup-turtles
  create-turtles 1000
    [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor
      set size 2
      set shape "dot"               ;;  Her sættes formen til at være en prik. Prøv at ændre til "person".
      get-healthy
      set immune? false ]
  ask n-of 1 turtles
    [ get-sick ]
end 

;; The go is run when clicking "go" in the interface

to go
  ask turtles [
    move
    if sick?
    [ get-older
      recover
      infect
     ;survive             ;; Fjern semikolonet foran survive i starten af denne linje og se hvad der sker.
    ]
  ]
  update-global-variables
  update-display
  tick
end 

to survive
  if random 1000 < 10 [ die ]
end 

to get-sick
  set sick? true
end 

to get-healthy
  set sick? false
  set sick-time 0
end 

to move
  right random 100 - 50    ; Drej en tilfældig vinkel mellem -50 og 50
  forward 1                ; Gå en frem
end 

;; If a turtle is sick, it infects other turtles on the same patch.
;; Immune turtles don't get sick.

to infect
  ask other turtles-here with [ not sick? and not immune?]
    [ if random-float 100 < infectiousness
      [ get-sick ] ]
end 

to recover ;; Hvis personen har været syg længe nok, bliver personen rask og immun
  if sick-time > duration
  [become-immune]
end 

to become-immune
  set sick? false
  set sick-time 0
  set immune? true
end 

to get-older
  set sick-time sick-time + 1
end 

to update-global-variables
  if count turtles > 0
    [ set %infected (count turtles with [ sick? ] / count turtles) * 100
      set %immune (count turtles with [immune?] / count turtles) * 100
       ]
end 

to update-display
  ask turtles
    [
      set color ifelse-value sick? [ red ]  [ifelse-value immune? [grey] [ green ] ]
  ]
end 

; Smittespredning  modificeret ud fra "virus", copyright 1998, Uri Wilensky.
; See Info tab for full copyright and license.

There are 3 versions of this model.

Uploaded by	When	Description	Download
Solveig Skadhauge	over 2 years ago	fit to window	Download this version
Solveig Skadhauge	over 2 years ago	fit to windows	Download this version
Solveig Skadhauge	over 2 years ago	Initial upload	Download this version

Attached files

File	Type	Description	Last updated
Simple smittespredningsmodel.png	preview	Preview for 'Simple smittespredningsmodel'	over 2 years ago, by Solveig Skadhauge	Download

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