Innovation

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;;; DECLARATIONS
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breed [ people ]


globals [
  time
  total-population

  ;internal influence counters and statistics
  contacts                ;; number of contacts made with other individuals
  old-contacts            ;; previous total
  contacts-per-time       ;; how many contacts made this time period
  conversation-starts     ;; total number of conversations
  old-conversation-starts ;; previous total
  starts-per-time         ;; how many conversations made this time period - number ended
  conversation-ends       ;; total number ended
  old-conversation-ends   ;; previous total
  ends-per-time           ;; how many conversations made this time period - number ended
  active-conversations    ;; total number of conversations currently active
  kind-structure          ;; used to determine type of adopter

  ;external influence counters and statistics
  externals               ;; total number of external mass media contacts
]

patches-own [
 original-color
]

people-own [
  status                 ;; "potential", "adopter" of technology, "disrupter" who adopted new technology
  kind                   ;; 1 - 5 are "innovator","early_adopter","early_majority","late_majority","laggard" assuming Rogers' percentages
  change-agent?          ;; change agent can meet with multiple people (TBD)
  initiator?             ;; keep track of who initiates the conversation
  partner                ;; The person that is our current partner in a conversation
  media?                 ;; Keep track of whether listening to mass media presentation
  start-time             ;; when current conversation starts
end -time               ;; when current conversation will end
  num-conversations      ;; cumulative number of conversations
  total-interact-time    ;; cumulative time spent in conversation
  num-externals          ;; cumulative number of interactions with external media
  total-external-time    ;; cumulative time spent with external media
]

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;;; SETUP
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to setup
  ca
  setup-globals
  setup-env
  setup-people
  setup-plot
end 

to setup-globals
  random-seed seed
  set time 0
  set total-population 0

  ;internal
  ;Note that kind-structure is based on Rogers' graphs, which is a normal distribution
  ;in which categories 1 & 2 = 5, while 3 = 4.  However category 1 is set by the number
  ;of adopters + disrupters - those who already have the new innovation.  So the table
  ;here is set to category 2 being the first category.  Adopters + Disrupters are
  ;set by sliders.
  set contacts 0
  set old-contacts 0
  set contacts-per-time 0.0
  set conversation-starts 0
  set old-conversation-starts 0
  set starts-per-time 0
  set conversation-ends 0
  set old-conversation-ends 0
  set ends-per-time 0
  set active-conversations 0
  set kind-structure [ [ 2 12 ] [ 3 47 ] [ 4 81 ] [ 5 100 ] ]

  ;external
  set externals 0
end 

to setup-env
  ;patch is default initially
  ask patches [
    set pcolor black
    set original-color black
  ]

  ;adopter mass media center
  if e-adopt [
    let x int(x-adopt / 100 * max-pxcor)
    let y int(y-adopt / 100 * max-pycor)
    let s int(s-adopt / 100 * (max-pxcor + 1))
    ask patches [
      if (pxcor > x - s) and (pxcor < x + s)
         and (pycor > y - s) and (pycor < y + s) [
         set pcolor orange
         set original-color orange
      ]
    ]
  ]

  ;disrupter mass media center
  if e-disrupt [
    let x int(x-disrupt / 100 * max-pxcor)
    let y int(y-disrupt / 100 * max-pycor)
    let s int(s-disrupt / 100 * (max-pxcor + 1))
    ask patches [
      if (pxcor > x - s) and (pxcor < x + s)
         and (pycor > y - s) and (pycor < y + s) [
         set pcolor cyan
         set original-color cyan
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to setup-people

  create-people initial-potentials [
      set total-population initial-potentials + total-population
      setup-people-parms
      setup-potential
      set kind determine-kind ( random 100 )
    ]

  if adopter-switch [
      set total-population initial-adopters + total-population
      create-people initial-adopters[
        setup-people-parms
        setup-adopter
        set kind 1
      ]
  ]

  if disrupter-switch [
    set total-population initial-disrupters + total-population
    create-people initial-disrupters [
       setup-people-parms
       setup-disrupter
       set kind 1
    ]
  ]
end 

to setup-people-parms
    setxy random-pxcor random-pycor ; centers on patch in Version 3.1
    set end-time 0
    set total-interact-time 0
    set num-conversations 0
    set total-external-time 0
    set num-externals 0
    set partner nobody
    set shape "person"
    set change-agent? FALSE
    set initiator? FALSE
    set media? FALSE
end 

to setup-potential
      set status "potential"
      set color blue
end 

to setup-adopter
      set status "adopter"
      if random-float 100 < adopter-agent [
        set change-agent? TRUE ;not yet used for anything
        set shape "face happy"
      ]
      set color red
end 

to setup-disrupter
      set status "disrupter"
      if random-float 100 < disrupter-agent [
        set change-agent? TRUE ;not yet used for anything
        set shape "face happy"
      ]
      set color lime
end 

to-report determine-kind [ probability-index ]
    let this_kind first ( first ( filter [ last ? >= probability-index ] kind-structure ) )
    print (word this_kind " : " probability-index " : " filter [ last ? >= probability-index ] kind-structure)
    report (this_kind)
end 

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;;; PROCESSING
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to go
  set time time + 1

  ;People who are not currently in a conversation will:
  ; (a) think about their current status, possibly changing their mind about an adoption or disruption.  They may
  ;     return to a potential, whereby they are subject to the influences of internal or external factors.
  ;     If they are already a "technologist," they may adopt the disruption if they are already an adopter or adopt
  ;     the adoption if already a disrupter. Note that this latter case is based on "personal reflection" rather than
  ;     due to external or internal influences.
  ; (b) move a little
  ; (c) check to see if they are on a "media center" patch, in which case they may adopt after hearing the message
  ; (d) they check to see if someone is around to talk to about technologies
  ;If already paired, they update status.
  ask people [
      without-interruption [
        ;external influence is only for those whose status is not the same as the media center.
        if e-adopt and [pcolor] of patch-here = orange and status != "adopter" [
          check-external-adoption
        ]
        if e-disrupt and [pcolor] of patch-here = cyan and status != "disrupter" [
          check-external-disruption
        ]

        ;internal influence - if partner = self, mass media is in effect, so no other pairings possible
          ifelse partner = nobody [
            if status = "adopter" [rethink-adoption]
            if status = "disrupter" [rethink-disruption]
            move
            if [pcolor] of patch-here = black [ initiate ]
          ][
            if partner != self [
              interact
            ]
          ]
      ]
   ]

  update-plot-pop
  update-plot-stat
  update-plot-meet
  update-plot-type
  update-monitors
end 

to check-external-adoption
  ;adoption check
    ifelse ( media? = FALSE ) [
      ;Keep track of total number of externals made
      set externals (externals + 1)
      set media? TRUE
      set partner self
      set start-time time
      set end-time round( random-exponential listening-time ) + time
      print (word time ": external influenced adoption initiated for " who " to last until " end-time)
    ][
      ifelse time >= end-time [
        set media? FALSE
        set partner nobody
        if ( time > ( start-time + time-to-adopt-external )) [
          setup-adopter
        ]
        move-away
        set num-externals (num-externals + 1)
        set total-external-time (end-time - start-time + total-external-time)
        print (word time ": " who " has finished adoption mass media session with status " status)
      ][
        print (word time ": " who " is listening to mass media presentation for adopters")
      ]
    ]
end 

to check-external-disruption
  ;disruption check
    ifelse ( media? = FALSE ) [
      ;Keep track of total number of externals made
      set externals (externals + 1)
      set media? TRUE
      set partner self
      set start-time time
      set end-time round( random-exponential listening-time ) + time
      print (word time ": external influenced disruption initiated for " who " to last until " end-time)
    ][
      ifelse time >= end-time [
        set media? FALSE
        set partner nobody
        if ( time > ( start-time + time-to-disrupt-external )) [
          setup-disrupter
        ]
        move-away
        set num-externals (num-externals + 1)
        set total-external-time (end-time - start-time + total-external-time)
        print (word time ": " who " has finished disruption mass media session with status " status)
      ][
        print (word time ": " who " is listening to mass media presentation for disrupters")
      ]
    ]
end 

to move
    rt random-float 360
    fd movement
    setxy pxcor pycor  ;centers on patch
end 

to move-away
    rt random-float 180
    jump int(s-adopt / 100 * max-pxcor * 2) ;move away from media center
    setxy pxcor pycor ;centers on patch
end 

to initiate
  ;partner with someone on own patch who it not already partnered
  ifelse (any? other people-here with [partner = nobody]) [

     ;Keep track of total number of contacts made
     set contacts (contacts + 1)

     ;may not actually strike up a conversation with this partner.  The contact rate is adjusted
     ;with the "movement" parameter and the "prob-conversation" parameter.  Note also that the
     ;user controls the length of each conversation which will also impacts contact rate.
     ifelse (random-float 100) < prob-conversation [
         converse
     ][
         print (word time ": no conversation initiated by " who)
     ]
  ][
    print (word time ": no possible parters for " who)
  ]
end 

to converse
       ;Choose one of the eligible people to partner with - may want to consider other partnering strategies
       ;here - such as all on one's patch or one of patch + neighborhood
       set partner one-of other turtles-here with [partner = nobody]

       ;Set partner's attribute to me.  May want to consider a list of partners to look at memory
       ;of who one has partnered with
       set [partner] of partner self

       ;This person is the initiator, automating rendering the partner to a subordinate role
       set initiator? TRUE
       set [initiator?] of partner FALSE

       ;keep track of time conversation started
       set start-time time
       set [start-time] of partner time

       ;set time to end conversation with mean conversation length and std. deviation set to 25% of mean
       ;in multiple person interactions, can change to have some partners leave early and not adopt technology
       let conversation-end round((random-float conversation-length) + time )
       set end-time conversation-end
       set [end-time] of partner conversation-end

       ;Set patch of conversation to different color - since xcor and ycor are real numbers, patches may not exactly
       ;coincide with position of partners
       let this-color color
       set [pcolor] of patch-here this-color

       ;keep track of total number of conversations started in simulation
       set conversation-starts (conversation-starts + 1)
       print (word time ": conversation between " kind ", " status " " who " and " [kind] of partner ", " [status] of partner
             " " [who] of partner " until " end-time " at [" xcor "," ycor "]")
end 

to interact
    ifelse (time <= end-time) [
       ifelse (time > start-time) [
         set [pcolor] of patch-here yellow
         print (word time ": ongoing conversation between " who " and " [who] of partner)
       ][
         print (word time ": match already established between " who " and " [who] of partner)
       ]
    ][
       ;Decide whether to adopt as conversation comes to a close
       ifelse status = "potential" and [status] of partner = "adopter" [
         if adopter-switch [
           if random-float 100 < prob-adoption [setup-adopter]
         ]
       ][
         ifelse status = "potential" and [status] of partner = "disrupter" [
           if disrupter-switch [
             if random-float 100 < prob-disruption [setup-disrupter]
           ]
         ][
              print (word time ": no action for " status " " who " in conversation with " [status] of partner " " [who] of partner)
         ]
       ]

       ;stat collection
       set num-conversations (num-conversations + 1)
       set total-interact-time (end-time - start-time + total-interact-time)
       ifelse initiator? [
          set conversation-ends (conversation-ends + 1)
          set [pcolor] of patch-here original-color
          print (word time ": initiator " who " ends conversation with " [who] of partner)
       ][
          print (word time ": recipient " who " ended conversation with initiator " [who] of partner)
       ]
       set partner nobody
       rt random-float 360
       jump 5 * movement

    ]
end 

to rethink-adoption
    ifelse random-float 100 < prob-adoption-to-potential [
      setup-potential
      print (word time ": reneged adoption => " who)
    ][
      if disrupter-switch and random-float 100 < prob-adoption-to-disruption [
        setup-disrupter
        print (word time ": adoption to disruption for " who)
      ]
    ]
end 

to rethink-disruption
    ifelse random-float 100 < prob-disruption-to-potential [
      setup-potential
      print (word ": reneged disruption => " who )
    ][
      if adopter-switch and random-float 100 < prob-disruption-to-adoption [
        setup-adopter
        print (word time ": disruption to adoption => " who)
      ]
    ]
end 

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;;; PLOTTING PROCEDURES
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to setup-plot
  ;Histogram - don't set limits - let model autoset
  ;set-current-plot "Meetings"
  ;set-histogram-num-bars 10
  set-current-plot "Adopter Type"
  set-histogram-num-bars 5
  update-plot-type
end 

to update-plot-pop
  ;update time series
  set-current-plot "Populations"
  set-current-plot-pen "Total"
  plot count people
  set-current-plot-pen "Potentials"
  plot count people with [status = "potential"]
  set-current-plot-pen "Adopters"
  plot count people with [status = "adopter"]
  set-current-plot-pen "Disrupters"
  plot count people with [status = "disrupter"]
end 

to update-plot-stat
  ;contacts, conversations and meetings
  set-current-plot "Statistics"
  set-current-plot-pen "Contacts"
  plot contacts / time
  set-current-plot-pen "Starts"
  plot (conversation-starts / time)
  set-current-plot-pen "Ends"
  plot (conversation-ends / time)
  set-current-plot-pen "Externals"
  plot externals / time
end 

to update-plot-meet
  ;update meetings histogram
  set-current-plot "Meetings"
  set-current-plot-pen "Internal"
  histogram [num-conversations] of people
  set-current-plot-pen "External"
  histogram [num-externals] of people
end 

to update-plot-type
  ;update adopter type histogram
  set-current-plot "Adopter Type"
  set-current-plot-pen "kind"
  histogram [kind] of people
end 

;;;
;;; MONITOR PROCEDURES
;;;

to update-monitors
  ;reset counters for each year
  set contacts-per-time (contacts - old-contacts)
  set starts-per-time (conversation-starts - old-conversation-starts)
  set ends-per-time (conversation-ends - old-conversation-ends)
  set active-conversations (conversation-starts - conversation-ends)
  set old-contacts contacts
  set old-conversation-starts conversation-starts
  set old-conversation-ends conversation-ends
end