Crop Production In Colombia

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2 collaborators

Mauricio Gonzalez Mendez (Team member)

WHAT IS IT?

This is an Agent Based Model that tries to represent the impact of market price of various variables on the production of crops in Colombia.

HOW IT WORKS

Agents where set at random and are assigned a mentality either capitalistc or traditional. They try to produce a crop every 3 or 4 ticks respectively. They need to check the market prices each tick to see if the can afford the onion production. If prices are not good they will turn read and get in debt. User are advised to first have a run with the price being the same for the whole run, and then play with the variables as ir runs to see how debt changes.

HOW TO USE IT

Set up creates the world and initializes the variables. Go Runs the simulation. Sliders modify the prices of important local variables. The Middel-Values button sets everything to the middel.

THINGS TO NOTICE

There is a point where damaged soil is a problem for production, where it becomes to costly to pay for agrochemicals, only the capitalistic seam to be able to afford it.

THINGS TO TRY

Change the price of crops, the water and the chemical inputs (abono), they are the main drivers and will generate the most diverse scenarios.

EXTENDING THE MODEL

The model would benefit from agents interacting with each other, the decisions and mentalities from on agent have a significant impact on another.

NETLOGO FEATURES

(interesting or unusual features of NetLogo that the model uses, particularly in the Code tab; or where workarounds were needed for missing features)

RELATED MODELS

(models in the NetLogo Models Library and elsewhere which are of related interest)

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Martín Otálora Low, Luz A. Rodríguez, Mauricio González.

Martín Otálora Low - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Mauricio González - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Luz A. Rodríguez - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model

;; Modulo 1: Sistema General, ganancias y perdidas

;; Adaptación y Aprendizaje en la producción Cebollera de Aquitania ;;

;https://ciencia.lasalle.edu.co/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1240&context=economia

;; CREAR UN BREED DE TECNIFICACION Y DAR MAS DINERO SI EL PREDIO ES GRANDE

globals [ mundo lago mostrar-lago agua parches-vacios terreno borde tasa-interes]

patches-own[
  distancia_agua
  dano_suelo
  dano_suelo_promedio
  elevation
  cosecha
  recuperar
  tota
  tamano
  abono-necesario
  bombeo-agua
  abandonado

]

turtles-own[
  personas
  ingreso
  ganancia
  costos
  area_plantada
  hogar
  deuda
  arriendo
]

breed[tradis tradi]
breed[capis capi]

capis-own
[productividad-capi
  capital-capi
  recursos-capi
  trabajo-capi
  s-capi]

tradis-own
[productividad-tradis
  capital-tradis
  recursos-tradis
  trabajo-tradis
  s-capi]

;;set up conditions

to Middel-Values

  set Water-Price 50500
  set Crop-Price 42500
  set Transportation-Price  5000
  set Pesticide-Price 800000
  set Chemical-input-Price  2000000
  set Labor-Price  45000
end 

to set-lago

  ask patches with [pxcor >= 11 and pxcor <= 13][ set pcolor blue]
  

  ;  ask patches [
  ;   if pxcor >= 40 and pxcor <= 60 and pycor >= 40 and pycor <= 60 [set pcolor blue]
  ;]
end 

to set-predios

  ask patches [
    if pcolor != blue [set pcolor green set dano_suelo (1 + random 25)] ;; todos empiezan con produccion activa (color verde)
     ;; el daño en el suelo va de 1 a 100 donde 100 es el mas afectado.
    set distancia_agua distance min-one-of patches with [pcolor = blue] [distance myself]
  ]
  ask patches [set cosecha 0]
  ask patches [set recuperar 0]

  ask patches [if pcolor != blue
    [ifelse distancia_agua <= 4
      [ifelse random 100 > 90 [ set tamano 10 + random 20 ][set tamano 1 + random 20]]
      [ifelse distancia_agua > 4 and distancia_agua <= 7 [ifelse random 100 > 90[set tamano 4 + random 6][set tamano 1 + random 20]][if distancia_agua > 7 [ifelse random 100 > 90[ set tamano 1 + random 4][set tamano 1 + random 20]]]]
    ]
  ]
Set tasa-interes 0.45
end 

to set-hogares


  set-default-shape turtles "dot"

  create-turtles 235
  ; Agregar mas tortutgas


  [ set size 1
    set color black
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    move-to one-of patches with [not any? other turtles in-radius 1 and pcolor = green]
    set personas (1 + random 5)
    set deuda 0
    set ingreso (Crop-Price  * (tamano) * (random 10));; 10 aleatrorio para darle ingresos diferentes a cada persona
    set costos (Transportation-Price  + Pesticide-Price + Chemical-input-Price  + Water-Price +  Labor-Price )
    set ganancia 0
    ifelse distancia_agua <= 3.5 [ ifelse random 100 < 80 [set breed capis][set breed tradis]] [ifelse random 100 < 70 [set breed tradis][set breed capis]]  ;REVISAR SI HAY UN MAXIMO DE TECNIFICADOS
    ask patch-here [set pcolor gray]
  ]


  ;]]while [ count ( patches with [ pcolor = 9 ] ) < 20 ][ ask patches with [pcolor = gray]

  ask turtles [set hogar patch-here]
  ask turtles[set area_plantada tamano]
end 

to set-degradado



  if best-soil-selector = "Capis"
  [ask capis
   [ask patch-here [
      set dano_suelo 1 ]]];; el daño en el suelo va de 1 a 100 donde 100 es el mas afectado.








  if best-soil-selector =  "Tradis"
  [ask tradis
   [ask patch-here [
      set dano_suelo 1 ]]];; el daño en el suelo va de 1 a 100 donde 100 es el mas afectado.
end 

to setup
  ca
  random-seed 9
  resize-world 0 25 0 25

  set-lago
  set-predios
  set-hogares
  set-degradado

  reset-ticks
end 

to go
  ask turtles [ask patch-here [ if pcolor = red [ set recuperar recuperar + 1]]]

  incremento-abano
  bombeo
  cultivar
  vender
  degradar
  colapso

  if ticks >= 500 [stop]
  tick
end 

to bombeo
  ask patches [ifelse distancia_agua > 0 and distancia_agua <= 4 [set bombeo-agua Water-Price * 1]
    [ifelse distancia_agua > 4 and distancia_agua <= 7 [set bombeo-agua Water-Price * 1.25]
      [if distancia_agua > 7 and distancia_agua <= 14 [set bombeo-agua Water-Price * 1.5]
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to incremento-abano

  ask patches [ifelse dano_suelo > 0 and dano_suelo <= 25 [set abono-necesario ((Chemical-input-Price  * 0.25) / 1.555) * tamano] ;; El precio esta en hectareas, se ajusta aproximadamente con 1.555 para ajustar a la fanegada
    [ifelse dano_suelo > 25 and dano_suelo <= 50 [set abono-necesario ((Chemical-input-Price  * 0.75) / 1.555) * tamano]
      [ifelse dano_suelo > 50 and dano_suelo <= 75 [set abono-necesario ((Chemical-input-Price  * 1) / 1.555) * tamano]
        [ if dano_suelo > 75 and dano_suelo <= 105 [set abono-necesario ((Chemical-input-Price  * 1.5) / 1.555) * tamano]
        ]
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to cultivar

  ask capis [ if ticks > 0 and ticks mod 3 = 0 and ingreso > 5000000
    [if any? patches with [pcolor = gray]
      [ask patches with [pcolor = gray]; falta representar las cosechas 4-2-3-3
        [;set dano_suelo_promedio mean [dano_suelo] of patches
          set pcolor 42
          set cosecha cosecha + 1
        ]
      ]
    ]
  ]


  ask tradis [  if ticks > 0 and ticks mod 4 = 0 and ingreso > 5000000
    [if any? patches with [pcolor = gray]
      [ask patches with [pcolor = gray]; falta presentar la coseachas 6-3-3
        [;set dano_suelo_promedio mean [dano_suelo] of patches
          set pcolor 42
          set cosecha cosecha + 1
        ]

      ]
    ]
  ]

 ;ask turtles [  if ticks > 0 and ticks mod 4 = 0 and ingreso >= 6000000[set costos_totales costos * dano_suelo_promedio]]
end 

to vender

  ask capis [if ticks > 0 and  ticks mod 4 = 0 [ if pcolor = 42[set ingreso  (Crop-Price * (40 + random 20 ) * (area_plantada)) set pcolor gray]]] ;; El azar es el aproximado de ruedas (Peso) de cebolla que sale por el area cultivada


  ask tradis [if ticks > 0 and  ticks mod 5 = 0 [if pcolor = 42 [set ingreso (Crop-Price * (30 + random 10) * (area_plantada)) set pcolor gray]]];; El azar es el aproximado de ruedas (Peso) de cebolla que sale por el area cultivada


  ask capis [set costos (Transportation-Price  + Pesticide-Price + abono-necesario + bombeo-agua +  (Labor-Price  * personas))]
  ask tradis [set costos (Transportation-Price  + Pesticide-Price + abono-necesario + bombeo-agua)]

  if ticks > 3 [ask capis [set ganancia ingreso - (costos) ]]

  if ticks > 3 [ask tradis [set ganancia ingreso - (costos)]]

  ifelse lease? [arrendar][]
end 

to degradar


  ask patches [ ifelse ticks > 0 and cosecha > 0
    [ifelse any? turtles in-radius 8 with [cosecha mod 3 = 0] [if dano_suelo < 100 [set dano_suelo dano_suelo + 10 ]][if dano_suelo < 100 [set dano_suelo dano_suelo + 5]]]
    [if ticks > 0 and recuperar > 0 [ifelse any? turtles in-radius 5 with [recuperar mod 3 = 0] [ if dano_suelo > 1 [set dano_suelo dano_suelo  - 10 ]][if dano_suelo > 1 [set dano_suelo dano_suelo - 5]]]]]
end 

to colapso

  ask turtles [if [dano_suelo] of patch-here > 99 and  ganancia <= -10000000 [set pcolor red]]
  ask turtles [ if [dano_suelo] of patch-here <= 100 [cultivar]]
  ask turtles [if [recuperar] of patch-here > 10 [set pcolor gray set recuperar 0 set cosecha 0]]
end 

to arrendar

  ask turtles [ifelse [pcolor = red] of patch-here [set abandonado abandonado + 1][ if abandonado > 0 [set abandonado abandonado - 1]]]

  ask patches with [abandonado > 12] [ask turtles-here [ set ganancia ganancia + 2000000 set costos costos / 2] ]
    ask patches with [abandonado > 12] [set abandonado 0 set plabel "Leased" show plabel]
  ask patches with [plabel = "Arrendado"][ask turtles-here [if ganancia > 10000000 [set costos costos * 2 set plabel ""]]]
end 

;Report de suelos abandonados por area Switch de abandono
;Cambiar los shapes a punticos
;Hacer mas denso el mapa

There is only one version of this model, created 2 days ago by Martín Otalora.

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