Updated Civil Unrest Model

;extensions [ time ]

breed [ agents an-agent ]
breed [ cops cop ]

globals [
  k                    ; factor for determining arrest probability
  threshold           ; by how much must G > N to make someone rebel?

  ; Time tracking
  current-date        ; current simulation date
  wave-start-date     ; start date of current wave
  wave-duration       ; duration of current wave

  ; Wave parameters
  current-wave        ; current active wave type
  wave-number         ; which wave we're on
  wave-intensity      ; current wave intensity

  ; Social tension parameters
  immigration-tension    ; tracks immigration-related tension
  womens-rights-tension ; tracks women's rights related tension
  geopolitical-tension  ; tracks international relations tension
  corporate-tension     ; tracks corporate/economic tension

  ; Crisis indicators
  communication-crisis    ; poor international communication
  policy-crisis          ; controversial policy implementations
  economic-crisis        ; economic hardship indicators

  ; Population parameters
  base-protest-ready-percent  ; 20-25% normally
  crisis-protest-ready-percent ; 30-35% during crisis

  ; Statistics
  total-active-protesters
  female-active-protesters
  male-active-protesters
  cumulative-participants    ; total participants across all waves
]

agents-own [
  risk-aversion       ; R, fixed for the agent's lifetime
  perceived-hardship  ; H, ranging from 0-1
  active?             ; if true, then the agent is actively rebelling
  jail-term          ; how many turns in jail remain?

  gender             ; "female" or "male"
  protest-causes     ; list of causes they care about
  protest-energy     ; energy for protesting (0-1)
  protest-threshold  ; individual threshold for joining
  diaspora           ; specific community membership
  activism-level     ; how likely to join protests

  home-patch         ; where agent typically returns to
]

patches-own [
  neighborhood       ; surrounding patches within vision radius
  diaspora-density   ; concentration of specific communities
  urban-center?      ; is this a major city?
  protest-probability ; base likelihood of protest activity
]

to setup
  clear-all
  reset-ticks

  set k 2.3
  set threshold 0.1
  set current-date 0
  set wave-number 0
  set cumulative-participants 0

  ; Initialize tension levels
  set immigration-tension random-float 0.3
  set womens-rights-tension random-float 0.3
  set geopolitical-tension random-float 0.3
  set corporate-tension random-float 0.3

  ; Initialize crisis indicators
  set communication-crisis false
  set policy-crisis false
  set economic-crisis false

  ; Set population parameters
  set base-protest-ready-percent 0.225
  set crisis-protest-ready-percent 0.325

  setup-patches
  setup-agents
  setup-cops

  update-statistics
end 

to setup-patches
  ask patches [
    set pcolor gray - 1
    set neighborhood patches in-radius vision
    set urban-center? (random-float 1.0 < 0.1)
    set protest-probability ifelse-value urban-center?
      [ 0.3 + random-float 0.2 ]
      [ 0.1 + random-float 0.1 ]
    set diaspora-density random-float 1.0
  ]
end 

to setup-cops
  create-cops round (initial-cop-density * .01 * count patches) [
    move-to one-of patches with [ not any? turtles-here ]
    display-cop
  ]
end 

to-report assign-gender
  ; Based on sociology data showing 60-70% female participation
  report ifelse-value (random-float 1.0 < 0.65)
    [ "female" ]
    [ "male" ]
end 

to setup-agents
  create-agents round (initial-agent-density * .01 * count patches) [
    move-to one-of patches with [ not any? turtles-here ]
    set heading 0
    set home-patch patch-here

    ; Basic properties
    set risk-aversion random-float 1.0
    set perceived-hardship random-float 1.0
    set active? false
    set jail-term 0

    ; Advanced properties
    set gender assign-gender
    set protest-causes assign-causes
    set protest-energy random-float 1.0
    set protest-threshold calculate-protest-threshold
    set diaspora assign-diaspora
    set activism-level random-float 1.0

    display-agent
  ]
end 

to go
  ; Increment time and manage waves first
  manage-waves
  update-social-dynamics

  ask turtles [
    if (breed = agents and jail-term = 0) or breed = cops [ move ]
    if breed = agents and jail-term = 0 [ determine-behavior ]
    if breed = cops [ enforce ]
  ]

  ask agents [ if jail-term > 0 [ set jail-term jail-term - 1 ] ]

  ask agents [ display-agent ]
  ask cops [ display-cop ]

  update-statistics
  tick
end 

to enforce  ; cop procedure
  ; Use in-radius instead of patch variable
  let active-targets agents in-radius vision with [active? and breed = agents]

  if any? active-targets [
    let target min-one-of active-targets [
      ; Prioritize closer targets and those causing more disturbance
      distance myself - activism-level
    ]

    if target != nobody [
      move-to target
      ask target [
        set active? false
        set jail-term random max-jail-term

        if gender = "female" [
          set womens-rights-tension womens-rights-tension + 0.01
        ]
        if diaspora != "none" [
          set geopolitical-tension geopolitical-tension + 0.01
        ]
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to update-social-dynamics
  ; Update tension levels based on current events and conditions
  set immigration-tension update-tension immigration-tension policy-crisis
  set womens-rights-tension update-tension womens-rights-tension policy-crisis
  set geopolitical-tension update-tension geopolitical-tension communication-crisis
  set corporate-tension update-tension corporate-tension economic-crisis

  ; Update crisis indicators based on evolving conditions
  if random-float 1.0 < 0.001 [ toggle-crisis "communication" ]
  if random-float 1.0 < 0.001 [ toggle-crisis "policy" ]
  if random-float 1.0 < 0.001 [ toggle-crisis "economic" ]
end 

to-report update-tension [current-tension crisis?]
  let new-tension current-tension

  ; Natural decay
  set new-tension new-tension * 0.99

  ; Crisis impact
  if crisis? [ set new-tension new-tension + 0.05 ]

  ; Random fluctuation
  set new-tension new-tension + (random-float 0.02 - 0.01)

  ; Ensure bounds
  report max (list 0 (min (list 1 new-tension)))
end 

to toggle-crisis [crisis-type]
  if crisis-type = "communication" [
    set communication-crisis not communication-crisis
    if communication-crisis [ set geopolitical-tension geopolitical-tension + 0.2 ]
  ]
  if crisis-type = "policy" [
    set policy-crisis not policy-crisis
    if policy-crisis [
      set immigration-tension immigration-tension + 0.2
      set womens-rights-tension womens-rights-tension + 0.2
    ]
  ]
  if crisis-type = "economic" [
    set economic-crisis not economic-crisis
    if economic-crisis [ set corporate-tension corporate-tension + 0.2 ]
  ]
end 

to manage-waves
  ; Increment current date
  set current-date current-date + 1

  ; Check for wave end conditions
  if current-wave != 0 [
    if current-date - wave-start-date > wave-duration [
      set current-wave 0
      set wave-intensity 0
    ]
  ]

  ; Check for new wave start conditions
  if current-wave = 0 and should-start-new-wave? [
    set wave-number wave-number + 1
    set wave-start-date current-date
    set current-wave select-wave-cause
    set wave-intensity calculate-wave-intensity
    set wave-duration calculate-wave-duration
  ]
end 

to start-new-wave
  set wave-number wave-number + 1
  set wave-start-date current-date
  set current-wave select-wave-cause
  set wave-intensity calculate-wave-intensity
  set wave-duration calculate-wave-duration

  ; Trigger immediate effects
  ask agents [
    if member? current-wave protest-causes [
      set perceived-hardship perceived-hardship * 1.2
    ]
  ]
end 

to end-current-wave
  set current-wave 0
  set wave-intensity 0

  ; Cool down effects
  ask agents [
    set perceived-hardship perceived-hardship * 0.9
  ]
end 

to update-wave-intensity
  let elapsed-time current-date - wave-start-date
  let peak-time wave-duration / 2

  ; Calculate bell curve intensity
  let time-factor (- ((elapsed-time - peak-time) ^ 2) / (2 * (wave-duration / 4) ^ 2))
  let new-intensity wave-intensity * exp time-factor

  ; Add random fluctuations
  set wave-intensity new-intensity * (0.9 + random-float 0.2)

  ; Intensity affected by active protesters
  let active-ratio count agents with [active?] / count agents
  if active-ratio > 0.1 [
    set wave-intensity wave-intensity * (1 + active-ratio)
  ]
end 

to-report should-start-new-wave?
  ; Base probability from social tensions
  let total-tension (
    immigration-tension * 0.25 +
    womens-rights-tension * 0.35 +
    geopolitical-tension * 0.2 +
    corporate-tension * 0.2
  )

  ; Wave probability increases with:
  ; 1. Higher tensions
  let wave-probability total-tension * 0.1

  ; 2. Existing protest activity
  let active-ratio count agents with [active?] / count agents
  if active-ratio > 0.05 [
    set wave-probability wave-probability * (1 + active-ratio * 4)
  ]

  ; 3. Crisis conditions
  if communication-crisis [ set wave-probability wave-probability * 1.5 ]
  if policy-crisis [ set wave-probability wave-probability * 1.5 ]
  if economic-crisis [ set wave-probability wave-probability * 1.5 ]

  ; 4. Time since last wave
  if wave-number > 0 [
    let time-since-last-wave current-date - wave-start-date
    if time-since-last-wave > 100 [
      set wave-probability wave-probability * 1.3
    ]
  ]

  ; Threshold check with randomization
  report random-float 1.0 < wave-probability
end 

to-report select-wave-cause
  ; Calculate weighted probabilities based on current tensions
  let total-weight (
    immigration-tension * immigration-weight +
    womens-rights-tension * womens-rights-weight +
    geopolitical-tension * geopolitics-weight +
    corporate-tension * corporate-weight
  )

  let r random-float total-weight
  let cumulative 0

  set cumulative cumulative + (immigration-tension * immigration-weight)
  if r < cumulative [ report "immigration" ]

  set cumulative cumulative + (womens-rights-tension * womens-rights-weight)
  if r < cumulative [ report "womens-rights" ]

  set cumulative cumulative + (geopolitical-tension * geopolitics-weight)
  if r < cumulative [ report "geopolitics" ]

  report "corporate"
end 

to-report calculate-wave-intensity
  let base-intensity 0.002 ; Base intensity for ~500K participants

  ; Adjust based on cause-specific tension
  if current-wave = "immigration" [ set base-intensity base-intensity * (1 + immigration-tension) ]
  if current-wave = "womens-rights" [ set base-intensity base-intensity * (1 + womens-rights-tension) ]
  if current-wave = "geopolitics" [ set base-intensity base-intensity * (1 + geopolitical-tension) ]
  if current-wave = "corporate" [ set base-intensity base-intensity * (1 + corporate-tension) ]

  ; Adjust for crisis conditions
  if communication-crisis [ set base-intensity base-intensity * 1.3 ]
  if policy-crisis [ set base-intensity base-intensity * 1.3 ]
  if economic-crisis [ set base-intensity base-intensity * 1.3 ]

  ; Add random variation
  set base-intensity base-intensity * (0.8 + random-float 0.4)

  report precision base-intensity 3
end 

to-report assign-causes
  let causes []

  ; Check each cause based on weights from sociology data
  if random-float 1.0 < immigration-weight [ set causes lput "immigration" causes ]
  if random-float 1.0 < womens-rights-weight [ set causes lput "womens-rights" causes ]
  if random-float 1.0 < geopolitics-weight [ set causes lput "geopolitics" causes ]
  if random-float 1.0 < corporate-weight [ set causes lput "corporate" causes ]

  ; Ensure each agent has at least one cause
  if empty? causes [ set causes list (one-of ["immigration" "womens-rights" "geopolitics" "corporate"]) [] ]

  report causes
end 

to-report assign-diaspora
  ; Based on sociology data mentioning Ukrainian diaspora specifically
  let r random-float 1.0
  report ifelse-value (r < 0.05)  ; Small percentage for specific diaspora groups
    [ one-of ["ukrainian" "other"] ]
    [ "none" ]
end 

to-report calculate-protest-threshold
  let base-threshold 0.5

  if gender = "female" [ set base-threshold base-threshold * 0.8 ]
  if diaspora != "none" [ set base-threshold base-threshold * 0.9 ]

  ; Fixed to use actual crisis variables:
  ifelse communication-crisis or policy-crisis or economic-crisis [
    set base-threshold base-threshold * (1 - crisis-protest-ready-percent)
  ] [
    set base-threshold base-threshold * (1 - base-protest-ready-percent)
  ]

  report base-threshold
end 

to-report calculate-grievance  ; agent procedure
  ; Use the interface slider directly
  let base-grievance perceived-hardship * (grievance-multiplier - government-legitimacy)

  ; Cap at reasonable values
  set base-grievance min (list 1 base-grievance)

  ; Rest of the function remains the same
  if current-wave != 0 [
    if member? current-wave protest-causes [
      set base-grievance base-grievance * (1 + wave-intensity)
    ]
  ]

  ; Identity-based grievance multipliers
  if gender = "female" and member? "womens-rights" protest-causes [
    set base-grievance base-grievance * 1.2
  ]

  ; Social tension effects
  if member? "immigration" protest-causes [
    set base-grievance base-grievance * (1 + immigration-tension * 0.8)
  ]
  if member? "womens-rights" protest-causes [
    set base-grievance base-grievance * (1 + womens-rights-tension * 0.8)
  ]
  if member? "geopolitics" protest-causes [
    set base-grievance base-grievance * (1 + geopolitical-tension * 0.8)
  ]
  if member? "corporate" protest-causes [
    set base-grievance base-grievance * (1 + corporate-tension * 0.8)
  ]

  report base-grievance
end 

to-report estimated-arrest-probability  ; agent procedure
  let c count cops in-radius vision
  let a 1 + count agents in-radius vision with [active?]

  ; Based on original model's formula with slight modification for dynamic scenarios
  report 1 - exp (- k * floor (c / a))
end 

to display-agent
  ifelse visualization = "2D"
    [ display-agent-2d ]
    [ display-agent-3d ]
end 

to display-agent-2d
  set shape "circle"
  ifelse active?
    [ set color red ]
    [ ifelse jail-term > 0
        [ set color black + 3 ]
        [ set color scale-color green perceived-hardship 1.5 -0.5 ]
    ]
end 

to display-agent-3d
  ifelse active?
    [ set shape "person active" ]
    [ ifelse jail-term > 0
        [ set shape "person jailed" ]
        [ set shape "person quiet" ]
    ]
  ; Color represents grievance level
  set color scale-color green perceived-hardship 1.5 -0.5
end 

to move
  if movement? or breed = cops [
    ifelse breed = agents and not active? [
      ; Non-protesting agents prefer to stay near home
      move-toward-home
    ] [
      ; Active agents and cops look for strategic positions
      let potential-moves neighborhood with [
        not any? cops-here and
        not any? agents-here with [ jail-term > 0 ]
      ]

      if any? potential-moves [
        ; Cops prefer to move toward clusters of active agents
        ifelse breed = cops [
          let active-nearby-patches neighborhood with [
            any? agents-here with [ active? ]
          ]
          ifelse any? active-nearby-patches [
            move-to one-of active-nearby-patches
          ] [
            move-to one-of potential-moves
          ]
        ] [
          ; Active agents try to avoid cops while staying in protest areas
          move-to one-of potential-moves
        ]
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to move-toward-home
  ; Only agents have home patches, not cops
  if breed = agents [
    let my-home [home-patch] of self
    if distance my-home > vision [
      face my-home
      let target-patch min-one-of (patch-set patch-ahead 1 patch-right-and-ahead 45 1 patch-left-and-ahead 45 1) [
        distance my-home
      ]
      if target-patch != nobody and not any? turtles-on target-patch [
        move-to target-patch
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

to display-cop
  set color cyan
  ifelse visualization = "2D"
    [ set shape "triangle" ]
    [ set shape "person soldier" ]
end 

to-report calculate-wave-duration
  let base-duration 30

  ; Longer duration for higher intensity waves
  set base-duration base-duration * (1 + wave-intensity * 10)

  ; Adjust for crisis conditions
  if communication-crisis or policy-crisis or economic-crisis [
    set base-duration base-duration * 1.2
  ]

  ; Add random variation
  report base-duration + random 20
end 

to determine-behavior
  let current-grievance calculate-grievance
  let arrest-prob estimated-arrest-probability

  ; Use the interface slider directly
  set active? (current-grievance - (risk-aversion * risk-weight) * arrest-prob > threshold-base-value)

  ; Track if agent just became active
  if active? and not was-active? [
    set cumulative-participants cumulative-participants + 1
  ]
end 

to-report was-active?
  report active?
end 

; [Rest of the original procedures remain the same: move, enforce, display-agent, etc.]

to update-statistics
  set total-active-protesters count agents with [ active? ]
  set female-active-protesters count agents with [ active? and gender = "female" ]
  set male-active-protesters count agents with [ active? and gender = "male" ]
end