Self-Balancing Social Distancing
No preview image
Model was written in NetLogo 6.1.1
•
Viewed 123 times
•
Downloaded 12 times
•
Run 0 times
Do you have questions or comments about this model? Ask them here! (You'll first need to log in.)
Info tab cannot be displayed because of an encoding error
Comments and Questions
Please start the discussion about this model!
(You'll first need to log in.)
Click to Run Model
globals [ max-infected cumulative-output daily-delta total-infected avg-daily-delta total-delta moving-average day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 transmissibility ] turtles-own[ infected? immune? distanced? dead? ] to setup clear-all set-patch-size (275 / max-pxcor) setup-turtles setup-infected setup-distancers set max-infected (count turtles with [infected?]) set cumulative-output (0) set transmissibility (1) reset-ticks end to setup-turtles create-turtles num-people [ set color white set shape "person" set size 2 set infected? false set immune? false set distanced? false set dead? false setxy random-pxcor random-pycor ] end to setup-distancers ask n-of init-num-distancing turtles [ set color blue set distanced? true ] end to setup-infected ask n-of init-infected turtles [ set color red set infected? true ] end to go ;;stop if everyone or noone is infected ;;if (count turtles with [infected? and not dead?] = 0) ;;or (count turtles with [infected?] = num-people) infect-susceptibles recover-infected death recolor move-normal move-distancers calculate-max-infected calculalate-cumulative-output calculate-daily-delta if ticks > 0 [calculate-avg-daily-delta] calculate-total-infected if self-balancing = true[ adjust-distancers ] recolor calculate-moving-average tick end to adjust-distancers let daily-delta-prop (daily-delta / num-people) if ((total-infected / num-people) > (threshold) or ((daily-delta-prop) > .005)) [ if (daily-delta > 0) ;; let's also say that we need at least 5% of the population NOT distancing. [ if (((count turtles with [distanced? and not immune? and not dead?] + (num-people * distance-step-ups)) < (num-people * .95)) and ((count turtles with [not distanced? and not immune? and not dead?]) > (num-people * distance-step-ups))) [ let new-distanced ((num-people * distance-step-ups)) ask n-of new-distanced turtles with [not distanced? and not immune? and not dead?] [ set distanced? true if (color = black) [ set color blue] ] ] ] ] if ((total-infected / num-people) < (threshold * .75)) [ if (daily-delta < 0) [ let new-not-distanced (num-people * distance-step-downs) if (new-not-distanced < count turtles with [distanced? and not immune? and not dead?])[ ask n-of new-not-distanced turtles with [distanced? and not immune? and not dead?] [ set distanced? false if (color = blue) [ set color black] ] ] ] ] end to infect-susceptibles ;; S -> I ask turtles with [not infected? and not immune?][ let infected-neighbors (count turtles-here with [infected?]) if (random-float 1 < 1 - (((1 - transmissibility) ^ infected-neighbors))) [set infected? true] ;let infected-neighbors (count other turtles with [infected?] in-radius 1) ; if (random-float 1 < 1 - (((1 - transmissibility) ^ infected-neighbors)) and not immune?) ;[set infected? true] ] end to recolor ask turtles with [infected? and not dead?] [ set color red] ask turtles with [distanced? and not infected?] [ set color blue] ask turtles with [not distanced? and not infected?] [ set color white] ask turtles with [immune?] [set color gray] ask turtles with [dead?] [ set color pink] end to move-normal ask turtles with [not dead? and not distanced?] [ right random 360 ;;get a new random heading forward random sociability-of-non-distancers ] end to move-distancers ask turtles with [distanced? and not dead?][ right random 360 forward random Sociability-of-Distancers ] ask turtles with [dead?][ forward 0 ] end to recover-infected ;;I -> R ;;avg case length is 2 weeks. ;;should have 50% chance of becoming immune at 2 weeks ;;if we are saying each tick equals 1 day, ;;daily odds of recovering should be (1-x)^14=.5, x= 0.0483 ask turtles with [infected? and not dead?] [ if random-float 1 < 0.0483 [ set infected? false ifelse are-survivors-immune? [ set immune? true set color gray set distanced? false ] [set color white] ] ] end to death ;;avg case length is 2 weeks. ;;1% of infected die, ;;if we are saying each tick equals 1 day, ;;and 1% of sick patients should be dead at 2 weeks ;;daily mortality should be (1-x)^14=.99, x= 0.000717624 ask turtles with [infected?] [ if random-float 1 < 0.000717624 [set dead? true set color pink set infected? false ] ] end to calculate-max-infected let x (count turtles with [infected? and not dead?]) if x > max-infected [set max-infected x] if x = 0 [ask turtles with [distanced?][ set distanced? false set color white ] ] end to calculalate-cumulative-output let y ((count turtles with [infected? and not dead?] * .5) + (count turtles with [not infected? and not distanced? and not dead?] * 2) + (count turtles with [not infected? and distanced? and not dead?])) set cumulative-output (cumulative-output + y) end to calculate-total-infected set total-infected ((count turtles with [infected? and not dead?])) end to calculate-daily-delta set daily-delta (count turtles with [infected? and not dead?] - total-infected) end to calculate-avg-daily-delta let y (daily-delta) set total-delta (total-delta + y) set avg-daily-delta (total-delta / ticks) end to calculate-moving-average set day-1 (day-2) set day-2 (day-3) set day-3 (day-4) set day-4 (day-5) set day-5 (daily-delta) if (ticks > 4) [ set moving-average ((day-1 + day-2 + day-3 + day-4 + day-5) / 5) ] end to-report total-adjusted-output report cumulative-output / (num-people * 2 * (ticks)) end to-report calculate-daily-output report (((count turtles with [infected? and not dead?] * -1) + (count turtles with [dead?] * -5) + (count turtles with [not infected? and not distanced?] * 2) + (count turtles with [not infected? and distanced?] * 1.5)) / (num-people * 2)) end to-report max-infected-prop report max-infected / num-people end to-report prop-dead let y (count turtles with [dead?]) report y / num-people end to-report prop-distancing report ((count turtles with [distanced? and not dead? and not immune?]) / num-people) end to-report prop-uninfected report (count turtles with [not infected? and not immune?]) / num-people end
There are 2 versions of this model.
Attached files
No files
This model does not have any ancestors.
This model does not have any descendants.