Flatten the Curve -- COVID-19
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turtles-own [ infected? infected-on sick? hospital? immune? ] breed [people a-person] globals [ pen-color exp-risk exp-interaction max-sick-proportion max-hospitalization max-hospital-occupation ] to setup ca create-people number-of-people [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor set infected? false set sick? false set immune? false set color blue set shape "person" ] repeat count people * avg-relationships-per-person [ ask one-of people [ create-link-with min-one-of other people with [not member? self [link-neighbors] of myself] [distance myself] ] ] set exp-interaction 0 end to setup-experiment reset-ticks set max-sick-proportion 0 set max-hospitalization 0 set max-hospital-occupation 0 if exp-interaction != probability-of-interaction [ set pen-color 12 + (6 * probability-of-interaction) / 100 ] ask people [ set infected? false set immune? false set sick? false set hospital? false set infected-on 0 set color blue ] set-current-plot "Infected" create-temporary-plot-pen (word "Interaction: " probability-of-interaction) set-plot-pen-color pen-color plot-pen-down set exp-interaction probability-of-interaction ask one-of people [ set infected? true set color 45 set infected-on ticks ] end to go if not any? turtles with [sick?] and not any? turtles with [infected?] [ plot-pen-up plotxy 1 0 stop ] ask people with [(infected? or sick?) and not hospital?] [ ask my-links with [random 100 < probability-of-interaction] [ if random 100 < probability-of-infection [ ask other-end [ if not infected? and not immune? and not sick? [ set infected? true set infected-on ticks set color 45 ] ] ] ] ] let current-infection count people with [infected? or sick?] / number-of-people let cur-hospital-occupation count people with [hospital?] let cur-require-hospitalization floor ((count people with [sick?] * require-hospitalization-pcnt) / 100) set max-sick-proportion max (list max-sick-proportion current-infection ) set max-hospitalization max (list max-hospitalization cur-require-hospitalization ) set max-hospital-occupation max (list max-hospital-occupation cur-hospital-occupation) ; At the end of incubation period, person turns sick ask people with [infected? and (ticks - infected-on) > incubation-period] [ set infected? false set sick? true set color red ] ; Recovery gives infinite immunity ask people with [sick? and (ticks - infected-on) > (recovery-time + incubation-period)] [ set sick? false set immune? true set hospital? false set color gray ] ; Only some sick persons require hospitalization let cur-to-hospital 0 if (cur-require-hospitalization - cur-hospital-occupation) > 0 [ set cur-to-hospital cur-require-hospitalization - cur-hospital-occupation ] ask n-of cur-to-hospital people with [sick?] [ if cur-hospital-occupation < hospital-beds [ set hospital? true set color lime set cur-hospital-occupation cur-hospital-occupation + 1 ] ] plotxy ticks current-infection tick end
There are 8 versions of this model.
Attached files
File | Type | Description | Last updated | |
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Flatten the Curve -- COVID-19.png | preview | Preview for 'Flatten the Curve -- COVID-19' | over 4 years ago, by Arthur Hjorth | Download |
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Guglielmo Celata
Unreadable in NetLogo 6.1.1 (Question)
If I download this, unzip it and open it with NetLogo 6.1.1, it says it can't be opened. Also the .nlogo file contains only gibberish (^@^@^@^@^@). I am interested in the model, is there something wrong I am doing?
Posted over 4 years ago
Māris Nartišs
This web site needs some love
Yes, download option seems to give corrupted file. Also Info page complains about encoding (WTF?). A workaround — Click on „Run in NetLogo Web“, activate it, then on upper-right corner will be an export: NetLogo button. It will give you a .netlogo file that works (tested with 6.1.1).
Posted over 4 years ago
Guglielmo Celata
Solved
Great, thanks, so, this is a general issue of the modelingcommons.org web app, then.
Posted over 4 years ago
Arthur Hjorth
Love your additions, Māris
Thanks for improving the model! Guglielmo, I will write the NetLogo team and tell them there are problems with downloads. Hopefully it will be fixed soon.
Posted over 4 years ago
Māris Nartišs
Download issue is gone
I added a new slightly updated version (now includes tracking patients in a hospital) and the problem with model downloading is gone.
Posted over 4 years ago
Guglielmo Celata
Can I make and distribute an Italian translation?
I would like to distribute this model in Italy, specially for schools. Do you agree?
Posted over 4 years ago
Māris Nartišs
This is just a model!
Yes, please do so! Keep in mind — I am a geographer and not an epidemiologist, thus it might be quite wrong. Otherwise — spread the word! More people see this, more they will understand how important is to stay at home.
Posted over 4 years ago
Guglielmo Celata
Italian model available
I've just uploaded the translated model.
Posted over 4 years ago