Traffic Predictor

globals[result]

turtles-own[
  high
  medium
  low
  
  prob-high
  prob-medium
  prob-low
  
  in-link-list
]

to compute-prob[n]
  let num-neighbors length ([in-link-list] of turtle n)
  
  let first-n "-"
  let second-n "-"
  let third-n "-"
  
  carefully[set first-n (item 0 ([in-link-list] of turtle n))][]
  carefully[set second-n (item 1 ([in-link-list] of turtle n))][]
  carefully[set third-n (item 2 ([in-link-list] of turtle n))][]
    
  ask turtle n[
    ifelse(num-neighbors = 1)[
      
      let high-index 0
      foreach["H" "M" "L"][
        let first-t ?
        set prob-high (prob-high + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (item high-index high)))
        set high-index (high-index + 1)
      ]
      
      let medium-index 0
      foreach["H" "M" "L"][
        let first-t ?
        set prob-medium (prob-medium + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (item medium-index medium)))
        set medium-index (medium-index + 1)
      ]
      
      let low-index 0
      foreach["H" "M" "L"][
        let first-t ?
        set prob-low (prob-low + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (item low-index low)))
        set low-index (low-index + 1)
      ]
      
      ;; for precision purposes
      set prob-high (precision prob-high 2)
      set prob-medium (precision prob-medium 2)
      set prob-low (precision prob-low 2)
    ]
    [
      ifelse(num-neighbors = 2)[
        
        ;; num-neighbors = 2
        let high-index 0
        foreach["H" "M" "L"][
          let first-t ?
          foreach["H" "M" "L"][
            let second-t ?
            set prob-high (prob-high + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (retrieve-prob second-n second-t) * (item high-index high)))
            set high-index (high-index + 1)
          ]
        ]
        
        let medium-index 0
        foreach["H" "M" "L"][
          let first-t ?
          foreach["H" "M" "L"][
            let second-t ?
            set prob-medium (prob-medium + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (retrieve-prob second-n second-t) * (item medium-index medium)))
            set medium-index (medium-index + 1)
          ]
        ]
        
        let low-index 0
        foreach["H" "M" "L"][
          let first-t ?
          foreach["H" "M" "L"][
            let second-t ?
            set prob-low (prob-low + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (retrieve-prob second-n second-t) * (item low-index low)))
            set low-index (low-index + 1)
          ]
        ]
        
        ;; for precision purposes
        set prob-high (precision prob-high 2)
        set prob-medium (precision prob-medium 2)
        set prob-low (precision prob-low 2)
      ]
      [
        
        ;; num-neighbors = 3
        
        let high-index 0
        foreach["H" "M" "L"][
          let first-t ?
          foreach["H" "M" "L"][
            let second-t ?
            foreach["H" "M" "L"][
              let third-t ?
              set prob-high (prob-high + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (retrieve-prob second-n second-t) * (retrieve-prob third-n third-t) * (item high-index high)))
              set high-index (high-index + 1)
            ]
          ]
        ]
        
        let medium-index 0
        foreach["H" "M" "L"][
          let first-t ?
          foreach["H" "M" "L"][
            let second-t ?
            foreach["H" "M" "L"][
              let third-t ?
              set prob-medium (prob-medium + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (retrieve-prob second-n second-t) * (retrieve-prob third-n third-t) * (item medium-index medium)))
              set medium-index (medium-index + 1)
            ]
          ]
        ]
        
        let low-index 0
        foreach["H" "M" "L"][
          let first-t ?
          foreach["H" "M" "L"][
            let second-t ?
            foreach["H" "M" "L"][
              let third-t ?
              set prob-low (prob-low + ((retrieve-prob first-n first-t) * (retrieve-prob second-n second-t) * (retrieve-prob third-n third-t) * (item low-index low)))
              set low-index (low-index + 1)
            ]
          ]
        ]
        
        ;; for precision purposes
        set prob-high (precision prob-high 2)
        set prob-medium (precision prob-medium 2)
        set prob-low (precision prob-low 2)
        
      ]
      
    ]
  ]
end 

to-report retrieve-prob [node traf]
  if(traf = "H")[
    report ([prob-high] of turtle node)
  ]
  if(traf = "M")[
    report ([prob-medium] of turtle node)
  ]
  if(traf = "L")[
    report ([prob-low] of turtle node)
  ]
  report 0
end 

to setup
  ca
  reset-ticks
  ask patches[set pcolor 69]
  
  setup-nodes
  setup-links
  setup-cpt
  setup-prob
end 

to setup-nodes
  crt 1[setxy 3 13 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 1 10 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 3 10 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 5 10 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 2 7 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 4 7 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 1 4 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 3 4 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 5 4 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
  crt 1[setxy 3 1 set shape "rounded-rectangle" set color blue set label who set label-color black]
end 

to setup-links
  crt-links 0 1
  crt-links 0 3
  crt-links 1 2
  crt-links 1 4
  crt-links 2 4
  crt-links 2 5
  crt-links 3 2
  crt-links 3 5
  crt-links 3 8
  crt-links 4 5
  crt-links 4 6
  crt-links 4 8
  crt-links 4 9
  crt-links 5 6
  crt-links 5 7
  crt-links 6 9
  crt-links 7 9
  crt-links 8 7
end 

;; for setting up the conditional probability table (CPT)

to setup-cpt
  
  ask turtles[
    ifelse((count in-link-neighbors) != 0)[
      
      set in-link-list sort ([who] of in-link-neighbors)
      
      set high n-values (3 ^ (count in-link-neighbors)) [random 100]
      set medium n-values (3 ^ (count in-link-neighbors)) [random 100]
      set low n-values (3 ^ (count in-link-neighbors)) [random 100]
      
      foreach (n-values (3 ^ (count in-link-neighbors)) [?])[
        let sum-item ((item ? high) + (item ? medium) + (item ? low))
        
        set high (replace-item ? high (precision ((item ? high) / sum-item) 2))
        set medium (replace-item ? medium (precision ((item ? medium) / sum-item) 2))
        set low (replace-item ? low (precision ((item ? low) / sum-item) 2))
        
        set prob-high 0
        set prob-medium 0
        set prob-low 0
      ]
    ][
      
      set in-link-list 0
      
      set high random 100
      set medium random 100
      set low random 100
      
      let sum-item (high + medium + low)
      
      set high (precision (high / sum-item) 2)
      set medium (precision (medium / sum-item) 2)
      set low (precision (low / sum-item) 2)
      
      set prob-high high
      set prob-medium medium
      set prob-low low
    ]
  ]
end 

to crt-links[from-turtle to-turtle]
  ask turtle from-turtle[create-link-to turtle to-turtle]
end 

to setup-prob
  compute-prob 1
  compute-prob 3
  compute-prob 2
  compute-prob 4
  compute-prob 5
  compute-prob 6
  compute-prob 8
  compute-prob 7
  compute-prob 9
end