Cyber Threats to Global Governance

Cyber Threats to Global Governance preview image

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networks 

Tagged by Carlos Pedro S. Gonçalves over 7 years ago

risk governance 

Tagged by Carlos Pedro S. Gonçalves over 7 years ago

risk science 

Tagged by Carlos Pedro S. Gonçalves over 7 years ago

Part of project 'Risk Governance'
Model group Risk Governance | Visible to everyone | Changeable by group members (Risk Governance)
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WHAT IS IT?

This model draws the risk morphic web for cyber-threats to global governance. The model is based upon the WEF Risks 2012 Report but adds a few extra elements and links that are found relevant from the perspective of cyber-threat risk evaluation.

CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEW

Risk mathematics can be approached foundationally from "morphic web theory", that has categories as specific structures when algebraic closure on composition and associativity of composition are assumed (Gon_ves, 2010).

A morphic web is a network of morphisms, where by a morphism it is understood a directional relation that goes from an origin object to a target object, that is, under the morphism an origin object is linked to a target object by a morphic connection that goes from the origin to the target.

The internet is an example of a morphic web, such that a single morphism is defined by two websites and the link between them, the link that allows the user to travel from a website to another website, is a morphic link, in the sense that it connects an origin object (the initial website) to a target website (the final website), by clicking on the link, the user goes from the origin website (origin object) to the target website (target object).

In Gon_ves (2010), a contribution is made for the foundational research on risk mathematics from morphic web theory and category theory.

Recent tools such as the "Risks Interconnection Map" (RIM), shown in the yearly "Global Risks Report" of the World Economic Forum, implement network-based structures for risk analysis that can be worked upon within morphic web-based approach to risk mathematics.

Gon_ves (2012), in a review of risk science, regarding the contributions of risk science and the complexity sciences for risk governance, showed how the RIM can be used as a scenario analysis tool and integrated in a decision support system approach for strategic risk management and risk governance.

The current model draws on these works to illustrate the construction of a risk morphic web for the cyber-threats to global governance.

The risk web is based upon the RIM of the 2012 WEF "Global Risks Report" but makes a few changes:

- It includes directionalities which account for the risks influence morphisms such that A -> B means that A is a risk source for B or that "A can trigger B";

- Two new risk situations are added to the original RIM network presented in the 2012 Risks Report p.25, these two situations are:

- hacktivism

- leakism

Hacktivism is a recent risk source that can be distinguished from the standard hacker attacks since the hacker attacks are motivated by a "cause" or "causes" to which the "hacktivist" group adheres, so that hacktivist activities are a form of activism and can be a source of concerted cyber-attacks which present a great risk especially for targeted global organizations.

Leakism refers to "Wikileaks"-type movements, that can also interconnect with activism and can be a source of risk to global governance.

HOW IT WORKS AND HOW TO USE IT

Click first on "setup" and then on "draw network", the risk web is drawn and major statistics are obtained, including the shortest path statistics from each risk situation to global governance, as well as in and out degree distributions, that are shown in the plots on the right of the netlogo world.

The usage of the model in terms of risk analysis can be found in the youtube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy9zz7LxS2U

EXTENDING THE MODEL

The model is modififiable so that one can use the basic code to add more risk situations to look at relevant connections, using "hide link" code. Other risk morphic webs can be built using the same scheme as the one presented here.

Graph theory-based risk measures besides the one presented and the ones proposed in Gon_ves (2012) can be introduced in model extensions.

The model can be used for risk analysis as well as a qualitative tool for scenario analysis.

It can be used also as a teaching tool.

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

A) MAIN REFERENCES:

Hayashi, Chiemi; Gleicher, David; Ramseger, Florian; Campbell, Karen; Soo, Amey; Tonkin, Samantha; Wright, Andrew and Stefaner, Moritz (2012), Global Risks 2012 _ Seventh Edition, Switzerland, World Economic Forum http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2012.pdf

Gon_ves (2010), Contributions to the categorial foundations of risk mathematics (Contributos para os fundamentos categoriais da matem_ca do risco), PhD Thesis, http://repositorio.iscte.pt/bitstream/10071/2842/1/TeseCPG.pdf

Gon_ves (2012), Risk Governance - A Framework for Risk Science-Based Decision Support Systems, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2085482

B) BLOGS AND MULTIMEDIA

Risk Governance and Strategic Risk Management:

http://riskgovernancestrategy.blogspot.pt/

Youtube Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy9zz7LxS2U

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model

turtles-own [ risk-situation in-degree out-degree]
globals [ path-one-chain path-two-chain path-three-chain total-links]

to setup
  ca
  set-default-shape turtles "circle"
end 

to draw-network
  global-governance-node
  cyber-threats-web
  geopolitical-threats-web
  statistics
end 

to statistics
  ; Shortest Path Statistics
  set path-one-chain count links with [color = white]
  set path-two-chain count links with [color = yellow]
  set path-three-chain count links with [color = cyan]
  set total-links count links
  
  set-current-plot "Shortest Paths"
  set-current-plot-pen "1 Morphic Chain"
  plotxy 1 path-one-chain / total-links
  set-current-plot-pen "2 Morphic Chain"
  plotxy 2 path-two-chain / total-links
  set-current-plot-pen "3 Morphic Chain"
  plotxy 3 path-three-chain / total-links
  
  ; Degree Statistics
  ask turtles 
  [ set in-degree count my-in-links
    set out-degree count my-out-links ]
  
  set-current-plot "In Degree Distribution"
  histogram [in-degree] of turtles
  
  set-current-plot "Out Degree Distribution"
  histogram [out-degree] of turtles
end 

to global-governance-node
  ask patch 0 0 [ sprout 1 [ set color red ] ]
  ask turtle 0 [ set risk-situation "global governance failure" ]
  ask turtle 0 [ set label risk-situation ]
end 

to cyber-threats-web
   ask patch 0 5 [ sprout 1 [ set color blue ] ]
   ask turtle 1 [  set risk-situation "hacktivism" ]
   ask turtle 1 [ set label risk-situation ]
   ask turtle 1 [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ] ]
   
   ask patch 5 3 [ sprout 1 [ set color blue ] ]
   ask turtle 2 [  set risk-situation "leakism" ]
   ask turtle 2 [ set label risk-situation ]
   ask turtle 2 
   [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ]
     create-link-to turtle 1 [ set color yellow ]
      ]

  ask patch 10 10 [ sprout 1 [ set color blue ] ]
   ask turtle 3 [  set risk-situation "cyber attacks" ]
   ask turtle 3 [ set label risk-situation ]
   ask turtle 3 
   [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ]
     create-link-from turtle 1 [ set color yellow ]
     create-link-from turtle 2 [ set color yellow ]
      ]
   
  ask patch -5 7 [ sprout 1 [ set color blue ] ]
     ask turtle 4 [  set risk-situation "critical systems failure" ]
     ask turtle 4 [ set label risk-situation ]
     ask turtle 4 
     [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ]
      create-link-from turtle 1 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-from turtle 3 [ set color yellow ]
       ]
  
  ask patch -3 10 [ sprout 1 [ set color blue ] ]
     ask turtle 5 [  set risk-situation "massive incident of data fraud or theft" ]
     ask turtle 5 [ set label risk-situation ]
     ask turtle 5 
     [ create-link-to turtle 4 [ set color yellow ]
       create-link-from turtle 1 [ set color cyan ] ]
     
  ask patch -5 3 [ sprout 1 [ set color blue ] ]
    ask turtle 6 [  set risk-situation "massive digital misinformation" ]
    ask turtle 6 [ set label risk-situation ]
    ask turtle 6 
    [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ]
      create-link-to turtle 4 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-from turtle 1 [ set color yellow ] ]
end 

to geopolitical-threats-web
   ask patch 7 -6 [ sprout 1 [ set color pink ] ]
    ask turtle 7 [  set risk-situation "terrorism" ]
    ask turtle 7 [ set label risk-situation ]
    ask turtle 7 
    [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ]
      create-link-to turtle 1 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-to turtle 2 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-to turtle 3 [ set color yellow ] ]
    
    ask patch 12 -2 [ sprout 1 [ set color pink ] ]
    ask turtle 8 [  set risk-situation "failure of diplomatic conflict resolution" ]
    ask turtle 8 [ set label risk-situation ]
    ask turtle 8 
    [ create-link-to turtle 0 [ set color white ]
      create-link-to turtle 1 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-to turtle 2 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-to turtle 3 [ set color yellow ]
      create-link-to turtle 7 [ set color yellow ] 
      create-link-from turtle 7 [ set color yellow ] ]
end 
   

There is only one version of this model, created over 7 years ago by Carlos Pedro S. Gonçalves.

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