Midsize_Vehicle_Market

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Lin He (Author)

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globals [
brands  
A-brand
B-brand
C-brand
D-brand
E-brand
F-brand
G-brand
H-brand
p1                                                      ; parameter 1 in utility function
p2                                                      ; parameter 2 in utility function
p3                                                      ; parameter 3 in utility function
p4                                                      ; parameter 4 in utility function
p5                                                      ; parameter 5 in utility function
p6                                                      ; parameter 6 in utility function
p7                                                      ; parameter 7 in utility function
u_price
u_fhr
u_MPG
u_age
u_gender
u_income
temp-color
plot-sales-volume
A-sales-volume
B-sales-volume
C-sales-volume
D-sales-volume
E-sales-volume
F-sales-volume
G-sales-volume
H-sales-volume
total-sales-volume
A-market-share
B-market-share
C-market-share
D-market-share
E-market-share
F-market-share
G-market-share
H-market-share
]

breed [cars car]
breed [customers customer]
breed [dealers dealer]
breed [manufacturers manufacturer]

cars-own [
  price                                                  ; selling price, set by dealer at the beginning of each week
  front-head-room                                        ; vehicle attributes - front headroom in the utility function
  MPG                                                    ; vehicle attributes - mileage per gallon in the utility function
  sold?                                                  ; status, true = sold, false = for sale
  brand                                                  ; brand, responding to manufacturer
]

customers-own [
  age                                                    ; age, from 20 to 80
  gender                                                 ; gender, either female (1) or male (0)
  income                                                 ; annual household income, unit: 10k
  found-dealer?                                          ; indicates wether they found a dealer nearby
]

dealers-own [
  BSC                                                    ; brand specific constants in utility function, reflecting customers' preference in brands
  ccar-price                                             ; price of conventional car it offers
  ccar-front-head-room                                   ; front headroom of conventional car it offers
  ccar-MPG                                               ; MPG of conventional car it offeres
  inventory                                              ; inventory level, number of cars at the dealers
  sales-volume                                           ; sales volume this week
  revenue                                                ; revenue this week
  utility                                                ; utility value
]

manufacturers-own [
  sales-volume
  revenue
  inventory
]

;********************INITIALIZE********************

to setup 
  clear-all
  
  ;; initialize parameters
  initialize
  
  ;; set up brands
  set brands [red green brown yellow blue pink grey turquoise] ; at most 8 brands in the model
  
  ;; initialize manufacturers
  set-default-shape manufacturers "car"
  let i 0
  repeat number-of-manufacturers
  [
    create-manufacturers 1
    ask manufacturer i
    [
      set size 2
      setxy min-pxcor + 0.5 min-pycor - i + 8                  ; align manufacturers in the lower left corner
      set color item i brands
    ]
    set i (i + 1)
  ]
  ;; create dealers
  set-default-shape dealers "house"
  ask n-of number-of-dealers patches
  [
    sprout-dealers 1 
    [ 
      set size 1.8
      set color item random number-of-manufacturers brands     ; set to different color representing different brands
      set inventory random max-dealer-inventory                ; set initial inventory levels
      set sales-volume 0                                       ; starts with zero sales
      set revenue 0
      ;show inventory                                          ; #debug
      set-up-vehicle-data                                      ; set up vehicle data of each brand
    ]
  ]

  ;; create cars
  set-default-shape cars "car"
  
  ;set-default-shape manufacturers "manufacturer"
;  update-variables
  do-plots
end 

;********************RUN********************

to go
  ;; old customers leave the market
  ask customers 
  [
   die
  ]
  
  ;; at the beginning of each sales week
  ask dealers
  [
    adjust-price
  ]

  ;; new customers enter the market
  initialize-customers
  ask customers
  [ 
    ask dealers
    [
      set utility -100000
    ]
    visit-dealers
    make-a-choice
  ]
  
  update-variables
  tick
  do-plots
end 

;; initialize parameters

to initialize
  set A-brand 0
  set B-brand 0.1
  set C-brand 0.2
  set D-brand 0.3
  set E-brand 0.4
  set F-brand 0.5
  set G-brand 0.6
  set H-brand 0.7
  set p1 1
  set p2 (1 / 20000)
  set p3 (1 / 40)
  set p4 (1 / 22.5)
  set p5 (1 / 50)
  set p6 (1 / 0.5)
  set p7 (1 / 10)
end 

; to set up vehicle attributes of each brand

to set-up-vehicle-data
  ifelse color = red
  [
   set BSC A-brand
   set ccar-price A-price
   set ccar-front-head-room A-front-head-room
   set ccar-MPG A-MPG   
  ]
  [
   ifelse color = green
   [
    set BSC B-brand
    set ccar-price B-price
    set ccar-front-head-room B-front-head-room
    set ccar-MPG B-MPG   
   ]
   [
    ifelse color = brown
    [
     set BSC C-brand
     set ccar-price C-price
     set ccar-front-head-room C-front-head-room
     set ccar-MPG C-MPG   
    ]
    [
     ifelse color = yellow
     [
      set BSC D-brand
      set ccar-price D-price
      set ccar-front-head-room D-front-head-room
      set ccar-MPG D-MPG   
     ]
     [
      ifelse color = blue
      [
       set BSC E-brand
       set ccar-price E-price
       set ccar-front-head-room E-front-head-room
       set ccar-MPG E-MPG   
      ]
      [
       ifelse color = pink
       [
        set BSC F-brand
        set ccar-price F-price
        set ccar-front-head-room F-front-head-room
        set ccar-MPG F-MPG   
       ]
       [
        ifelse color = grey
        [
         set BSC G-brand
         set ccar-price G-price
         set ccar-front-head-room G-front-head-room
         set ccar-MPG G-MPG   
        ]
        [
         set BSC H-brand
         set ccar-price H-price
         set ccar-front-head-room H-front-head-room
         set ccar-MPG H-MPG
        ]
       ]
      ]
     ]
    ]
   ] 
  ]
end 

to adjust-price
end 

to initialize-customers
  set-default-shape customers "person"
  create-customers number-of-customers
  [
   setxy random-xcor random-ycor
   set color white
   ifelse random 100 < 50
   [set gender 1]
   [set gender 0]
   set age (20 + random 60)
   set income (5 + random 10)
   set found-dealer? false
  ]
end 

; customers visit the first 4 dealers they see

to visit-dealers
  ;let i 0
  repeat choice-set-size
  [
   while [not found-dealer?] 
   [
     wiggle
     if any? dealers-here
     [
       set found-dealer? true
     ]
   ]
   calculate-utility
   ;set i (i + 1)
   set found-dealer? false
  ]
end 

to wiggle
  forward random 3
  rt (random 180 - 90)
end 

;; calculate utility for customer i and brand j

to calculate-utility
  set u_age age
  set u_gender gender
  set u_income income
  ask one-of dealers-here
  [
    set utility ( p1 * BSC + p2 * ccar-price + p3 * ccar-front-head-room + p4 * ccar-MPG + p5 * u_age + p6 * u_gender + p7 * u_income + (random 100 / 100) )
  ]
end 

; customers make a choice among 4 cars

to make-a-choice
  ask one-of dealers with-max [utility]
  [
    set sales-volume (sales-volume + 1)
    set revenue (revenue + ccar-price)
    ;show sales-volume
    set inventory (inventory - 1)
    ;show inventory
  ]
end 

to update-variables
  set total-sales-volume sum [sales-volume] of dealers
  show total-sales-volume
  
    ask manufacturer 0
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set A-sales-volume sales-volume
      set A-market-share (A-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 1
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set B-sales-volume sales-volume
      set B-market-share (B-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 2
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set C-sales-volume sales-volume
      set C-market-share (C-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 3
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set D-sales-volume sales-volume
      set D-market-share (D-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 4
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set E-sales-volume sales-volume
      set E-market-share (E-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 5
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set F-sales-volume sales-volume
      set F-market-share (F-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 6
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set G-sales-volume sales-volume
      set G-market-share (G-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]

    ask manufacturer 7
    [
      set temp-color color
      set sales-volume sum [ sales-volume ] of dealers with [color = temp-color] 
      set inventory sum [ inventory ] of dealers with [color = temp-color]
      set H-sales-volume sales-volume
      set H-market-share (H-sales-volume / total-sales-volume) * 100
    ]
end 

to do-plots
  set-current-plot "sales-volume"

    set-current-plot-pen "1"
    plot A-sales-volume
    ;show A-sales-volume
    set-current-plot-pen "2"
    plot B-sales-volume
    ;show B-sales-volume
    set-current-plot-pen "3"
    plot C-sales-volume    
    set-current-plot-pen "4"
    plot D-sales-volume
    set-current-plot-pen "5"
    plot E-sales-volume    
    set-current-plot-pen "6"
    plot F-sales-volume    
    set-current-plot-pen "7"
    plot G-sales-volume    
    set-current-plot-pen "8"
    plot H-sales-volume
    
  set-current-plot "market-share"
    set-current-plot-pen "1"
    plot A-market-share
    set-current-plot-pen "2"
    plot B-market-share
    set-current-plot-pen "3"
    plot C-market-share   
    set-current-plot-pen "4"
    plot D-market-share
    set-current-plot-pen "5"
    plot E-market-share 
    set-current-plot-pen "6"
    plot F-market-share  
    set-current-plot-pen "7"
    plot G-market-share  
    set-current-plot-pen "8"
    plot H-market-share
end

There are 2 versions of this model.

		Uploaded by	When	Description	Download
		Lin He	almost 14 years ago	version 1	Download this version
		Lin He	almost 14 years ago	Initial upload	Download this version

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